ΠΑΓΚΟΣΜΙΑ ΣΥΝΤΑΞΗ ΕΝΟΣ ΔΟΛΛΑΡΙΟΥ ΤΗΝ ΗΜΕΡΑ ….

……. ΜΠΟΡΕΙ ΝΑ ΜΕΙΩΣΕΙ ΤΗΝ ΦΤΩΧΕΙΑ ΤΩΝ ΗΛΙΚΙΩΜΕΝΩΝ!!!!!

ΤΙ ΑΛΛΟ ΘΑ ΑΚΟΥΣΟΥΜΕ ΑΡΑΓΕ???

A universal pension offering benefits equivalent to the extreme poverty line of US$1 (0.75 EUR) a day would reduce old age poverty in developing countries which are to see the most rapid population aging in coming decades.

Η ΡΩΣΙΑ ΘΑ ΠΟΥΛΗΣΕΙ MiG fighter jets ΣΤΗΝ ΣΥΡΙΑ ….

….. ΓΙΑ ΛΟΓΑΡΙΑΣΜΟ ΤΟΥ ΙΡΑΝ

Russia has started executing a contract for the delivery of five MiG-31 fighter jets to Syria. The contract has been signed by Russia’s defense export enterprise Rosoboronexport this year. Therefore, Russia resumes arms shipments to the Middle East after a short break caused with last-year’s war in Lebanon.

WIMAX ΚΑΙ ΗΠΑ

What’s Up with U.S. WiMax?
By Eric Griffith

June 19, 2007

From where it stands today, WiMax – real 802.16-based WiMax – has no where to go but up. Parks Associates says 8% of the 1.1 billion broadband subscribers in the world will be using Mobile WiMax by 2012. Senza Fili Consulting says that number will be 54 million users, and by that same time, 61% of those will be using it for mobile access.

ΔΙΑΒΑΣΤΕ ΠΕΡΙΣΣΟΤΕΡΑ

Η ΓΕΩΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΗ ΤΩΝ ΠΑΛΑΙΣΤΙΝΙΩΝ

GEOPOLITICAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT

06.19.2007

The Geopolitics of the Palestinians

By George Friedman

Last week, an important thing happened in the Middle East. Hamas, a radical Islamist political group, forcibly seized control of Gaza from rival Fatah, an essentially secular Palestinian group. The West Bank, meanwhile, remains more or less under the control of Fatah, which dominates the Palestinian National Authority in that region. Therefore, for the first time, the two distinct Palestinian territories — the Gaza Strip and the West Bank — no longer are under a single Palestinian authority.

Hamas has been increasing its influence among the Palestinians for years, and it got a major boost by winning the most recent election. It now has claimed exclusive control over Gaza, its historical stronghold and power base. It is not clear whether Hamas will try to take control of the West Bank as well, or whether it would succeed if it did make such a play. The West Bank is a different region with a very different dynamic. What is certain, for the moment at least, is that these regions are divided under two factions, and therefore have the potential to become two different Palestinian states.

In a way, this makes more sense than the previous arrangement. The West Bank and the Gaza Strip are physically separated from one another by Israel. Travel from one part of the Palestinian territories to the other relies on Israel’s willingness to permit it — which is not always forthcoming. As a result, the Palestinian territories are divided into two areas that have limited contact.

The war between the Philistines and the Hebrews is described in the books of Samuel. The Philistines controlled the coastal lowlands of the Levant, the east coast of the Mediterranean. They had advanced technologies, such as the ability to smelt bronze, and they conducted international trade up and down the Levant and within the eastern Mediterranean. The Hebrews, unable to engage the Philistines in direct combat, retreated into the hills to the east of the coast, in Judea, the area now called the West Bank.

The Philistines were part of a geographical entity that ran from Gaza north to Turkey. The Hebrews were part of the interior that connected north to Syria, south into the Arabian deserts and east across the Jordan. The Philistines were unable to pursue the Hebrews in the interior, and the Hebrews — until David — were unable to dislodge the Philistines from the coast. Two distinct entities existed.

Today, Gaza is tied to the coastal system, which Israel and Lebanon now occupy. Gaza is the link between the Levantine coast and Egypt. The West Bank is not a coastal entity but a region whose ties are to the Arabian Peninsula, Jordan and Syria. The point is that Gaza and the West Bank are very distinct geographical entities that see the world in very different ways.

Gaza, its links to the north cut by the Israelis, historically has been oriented toward the Egyptians, who occupied the region until 1967. The Egyptians influenced the region by creating the Palestine Liberation Organization, while Egypt’s dissident Muslim Brotherhood helped influence the creation of Hamas in 1987. The West Bank, part of Jordan until 1967, is larger and more complex in its social organization, and it really represented the center of gravity of Palestinian nationalism under Fatah. Gaza and the West Bank were always separate entities, and the recent action by Hamas has driven home that point.

Hamas’ victory in Gaza means much more to the Palestinians and Egyptians than it does to the Israelis — at least in the shorter term. The fear in Israel now is that Gaza, under Hamas, will become more aggressive in carrying out terrorist attacks in Israel. Hamas certainly has an ideology that argues for this, and it is altogether possible that the group will become more antagonistic. However, it appears to us that Hamas already was capable of carrying out as many attacks as it wished before taking complete control. Moreover, by increasing attacks now, Hamas — which always has been able to deny responsibility for these incidents — would lose the element of deniability. Having taken control of Gaza, regardless of whether it carries out attacks, it would have failed to prevent them. Hamas’ leadership is more vulnerable now than ever before.

Let’s consider the strategic position of the Palestinians. Their primary weapon against Israel remains what it always has been: random attacks against civilian targets designed to destabilize Israel. The problem with this strategy is obvious. Using terrorism against Americans in Iraq is potentially effective as a strategy. If the Americans cannot stand the level of casualties being imposed, they have the option of leaving Iraq. Although leaving might pose serious problems to U.S. regional and global interests, it would not affect the continued existence of the United States. Therefore, the insurgents potentially could find a threshold that would force the United States to fold.

The Israelis cannot leave Israel. Assume for the moment that the Palestinians could impose 1,000 civilian casualties a year. There are about 5 million Jews in Israel. That would be about 0.02 percent casualties. The Israelis are not going to leave Israel at that casualty rate, or at a rate a thousand times greater. Unlike the Americans, for whom Iraq is a subsidiary interest, Israel is Israel’s central interest. Israel is not going to capitulate to the Palestinians over terrorism attacks.

The Israelis could be convinced to make political concessions in shaping a Palestinian state. For example, they might concede more land or more autonomy in order to stop the attacks. That might have been attractive to Fatah, but Hamas explicitly rejects the existence of Israel and therefore gives the Israelis no reason to make concessions. That means that while attacks might be psychologically satisfying to Hamas, they would be substantially less effective than the attacks that were carried out while Fatah was driving the negotiations. Bargaining with Hamas gets Israel nothing.

One of the uses of terrorism is to trigger an Israeli response, which in turn can be used to drive a wedge between Israel and the West. Fatah has been historically skillful at using the cycle of violence to its political advantage. Hamas, however, is handicapped in two ways: First, its position on Israel is perceived as much less reasonable than Fatah’s. Second, Hamas is increasingly being viewed as a jihadist movement, and, as such, its strength threatens European and U.S. interests.

Although Israel does not want terrorist attacks, such attacks do not represent a threat to the survival of the state. To be cold-blooded, they are an irritant, not a strategic threat. The only thing that could threaten the survival of Israel, apart from a nuclear barrage, would be a shift in position of neighboring states. Right now, Israel has peace treaties with both Egypt and Jordan, and an adequately working relationship with Syria. With Egypt and Jordan out of the game, Syria does not represent a threat. Israel is strategically secure.

The single most important neighbor Israel has is Egypt. When energized, it is the center of gravity of the Arab world. Under former President Gamal Abdul Nasser, Egypt drove Arab hostility to Israel. Once Anwar Sadat reversed Nasser’s strategy on Israel, the Jewish state was basically secure. Other Arab nations could not threaten it unless Egypt was part of the equation. And for nearly 30 years, Egypt has not been part of the equation. But if Egypt were to reverse its position, Israel would, over time, find itself much less comfortable. Though Saudi Arabia has recently overshadowed Egypt’s role in the Arab world, the Egyptians can always opt back into a strong leadership position and use their strength to threaten Israel. This becomes especially important as Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s health fails and questions are raised about whether his successors will be able to maintain control of the country while the Muslim Brotherhood spearheads a campaign to demand political reform.

As we have said, Gaza is part of the Mediterranean coastal system. Egypt controlled Gaza until 1967 and retained influence there afterward, but not in the West Bank. Hamas also was influenced by Egypt, but not by Mubarak’s government. Hamas was an outgrowth of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, which the Mubarak regime has done a fairly good job of containing, primarily through force. But there also is a significant paradox in Hamas’ relations with Egypt. The Mubarak regime, particularly through its intelligence chief (and prospective Mubarak successor) Omar Suleiman, has good working relations with Hamas, despite being tough on the Muslim Brotherhood.

This is the threat to Israel. Hamas has ties to Egypt and resonates with Egyptians, as well as with Saudis. Its members are religious Sunnis. If the creation of an Islamist Palestinian state in Gaza succeeds, the most important blowback might be in Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood — which is currently lying very low — could be rekindled. Mubarak is growing old, and he hopes to be succeeded by his son. The credibility of the regime is limited, to say the least.

Hamas is unlikely to take over the West Bank — and, even if it did, it still would make no strategic difference. Increased terrorist attacks against Israel’s population would achieve less than the attacks that occurred while Fatah was negotiating. They could happen, but they would lead nowhere. Hamas’ long-term strategy — indeed, the only hope of the Palestinians who not prepared to accept a compromise with Israel — is for Egypt to change its tune toward Israel, which could very well involve energizing Islamist forces in Egypt and bringing about the fall of the Mubarak regime. That is the key to any solution for Hamas.

Although many are focusing on the rise of Iran’s influence in Gaza, putting aside the rhetoric, Iran is a minor player in the Israeli-Palestinian equation. Even Syria, despite hosting Hamas’ exiled leadership, carries little weight when it comes to posing a strategic threat to Israel. But Egypt carries enormous weight. If an Islamist rising occurred in Egypt and a regime was installed that could energize the Egyptian public against Israel, then that would reflect a strategic threat to the survival of the Israeli state. It would not be an immediate threat — it would take a generation to turn Egypt into a military power — but it would ultimately represent a threat.

Only a disciplined and hostile Egypt could serve as the cornerstone of an anti-Israel coalition. Hamas, by asserting itself in Gaza — especially if it can resist the Israeli army — could strike the chord in Egypt that Fatah has been unable to strike for almost 30 years.

That is the importance of the creation of a separate Gaza entity; it complicates Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, and probably makes them impossible. And this in and of itself works in Israel’s favor, since it has no need to even entertain negotiations with the Palestinians as long as the Palestinians continue dividing themselves. If Hamas were to make significant inroads in the West Bank, it would make things more difficult for Israel, as well as for Jordan. But with or without the West Bank, Hamas has the potential — not the certainty, just the potential — to reach west along the Mediterranean coast and influence events in Egypt. And that is the key for Hamas.

There are probably a dozen reasons why Hamas made the move it did, most of them trivial and limited to local problems. But the strategic consequence of an independent, Islamist Gaza is that it can act both as a symbol and as a catalyst for change in Egypt, something that was difficult as long as Hamas was entangled with the West Bank. This probably was not planned, but it is certainly the most important consequence — intended or not — of the Gaza affair.

Two things must be monitored: first, whether there is reconciliation between Gaza and the West Bank and, if so, on what sort of terms; second, what the Egyptian Islamists led by the Muslim Brotherhood do now that Hamas, their own creation, has taken control of Gaza, a region once controlled by the Egyptians.

Egypt is the place to watch.

© Copyright 2007 Strategic Forecasting Inc. All rights reserved.

COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS-19 ΙΟΥΝΙΟΥ 2007

June 19, 2007 View this newsletter as a web page on CFR.org Top of the Agenda: U.S. Unfreezes Palestinian Aid The United States joined the European Union in restoring millions of dollars of aid money to the Palestinian government, now that Hamas is no longer a member faction. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said up to $86 million in funds would be redirected to help Mahmoud Abbas’ new government provide basic services (WashPost). Israel also announced it would end its economic boycott of the PA government (Haaretz). Speaking with NPR, Robert Malley, the Middle East program director at the International Crisis Group, says the release of hundreds of millions of dollars of withheld tax revenues from Israel will make the biggest difference in terms of bolstering Abbas’ government. President Bush and Israel’s Prime Minister Ehud Olmert meet today in Washington to discuss how to renew talks (JPost) with the PA government . In an interview with CFR.org’s Bernard Gwertzman, Anthony Cordesman of the Center for International and Strategic Studies argues that despite international efforts to support Fatah’s government, Hamas won’t be easily contained in Gaza. MIDDLE EAST: Pressing on Baghdad More details became available on the major military offensive American and Iraqi troops are launching to root out al-Qaeda networks north of Baghdad. More than ten thousand U.S and Iraqi troops mobilized and began their assault with a press to secure the Sunni-dominated city of Baquba, following intense air raids (BBC). News reports suggested that by early Tuesday, twenty-two insurgents had been killed in the process of the attacks (AP). Lebanon: Three Lebanese soldiers were killed as the army shelled a school complex within a Palestinian refugee camp where officials say members of the militant group Fatah al-Islam are making a final stand (Daily Star). BBC Reporter: Officials from Hamas issued an ultimatum to the captors (al-Jazeera) of the BBC journalist Alan Johnston in the Gaza Strip, saying they will free Johnston by force if he isn’t released by the end of the day . ASIA: New Hopes on North Korea Following the announcement that Pyongyang would allow UN nuclear inspectors to enter North Korea to discuss the logistics of closing its main nuclear power plant, news reports hinted Kim Jong-Il will shut down the reactor (FT) next month. This Backgrounder examines the Six-Party Talks framework through which the international community has been negotiating with North Korea. China: NPR investigates China’s efforts to shut down forced labor camps following reports that 220 enslaved brick workers were released last week. East Asia: Carnegie’s Joshua Kurlantzick argues in the latest Washington Quarterly that despite losing influence to China in East Asia, the United States must remain engaged with a region that is «the engine of global economic growth and potentially the world’s most dangerous security environment.» SOUTH & CENTRAL ASIA: Taliban Offensive Taliban forces captured a town in the southern Afghanistan province of Kandahar after several days of intense gunfights (BBC). A recent report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies examines the metrics of success in Afghanistan, noting that despite widely profiled recent gains, the Taliban has also suffered some major losses. India: The new Washington Quarterly is devoted to India, including an interesting look at its struggles with democracy promotion. Pakistan: Ongoing blackouts in Karachi, including one that lasted sixteen hours, sparked major protests (Daily Times) in the city. AFRICA: Nigeria Seeks to Ease Strike Threat The Nigerian government reversed course ahead of general strikes planned for Wednesday, agreeing to a series of concessions to try to pacify trade unions (BBC). The ongoing threat of a major worker shutdown prompted a spike in oil prices (Bloomberg). Failed states: Foreign Policy has released its 2007 failed states index. Six of the top seven most unstable countries by the index’s measure are in sub-Saharan Africa. Morocco-Western Sahara: Officials from the Polisario separatist group and the Moroccan government are meeting at UN-sponsored talks outside New York in new efforts to try to resolve a three-decade-long dispute over the Western Sahara region (al-Jazeera). AMERICAS: Scandals Shake Brazil The Los Angeles Times reports that scandals are toppling many officials with close ties to Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, though Lula himself hasn’t been implicated. Colombia: The government released a leader of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) militant group, hoping it will prompt the reciprocal release of three U.S. military contractors kidnapped in 2003 (AP). CAMPAIGN 2008: Civil Liberties and Human Rights Benjamen Wittes, a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution, writes in the latest Policy Review on the Bush administration and military tribunals, arguing civil liberties and human rights violations have yet to pick up traction as a campaign issue. Obama-Clinton: Barack Obama apologized for a memo his campaign circulated last week criticizing Hillary Clinton’s investments and ties in India. That memo, which referred to Clinton as «Clinton (D-Punjab),» sparked anger among some Asian-American voters. EUROPE: EU-Central Asia Strategy European Union foreign ministers approved the bloc’s first cohesive strategy for cooperating with central Asian countries, many of which are critical suppliers (RFE/RL) of oil and natural gas to Europe. EU-UK: British officials drew ire from EU leaders for apparent attempts to dilute plans (FT) for cooperative foreign policy, escalating tensions in advance of an EU summit later this week in Brussels. France-U.S.: Der Spiegel profiles France’s new Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner and says he is well-placed to help restore transatlantic ties.

Την Πέμπτη τα αποτελέσματα πανελλαδικών

Την Πέμπτη 21 Ιουνίου στις 12 το μεσημέρι θα δοθούν από το υπουργείο
Παιδείας τα στατιστικά στοιχεία των φετινών πανελλαδικών εξετάσεων για
εισαγωγή στην τριτοβάθμια εκπαίδευση, ενώ την ίδια μέρα θα αναρτηθούν
οι βαθμολογίες των υποψηφίων σε όλα τα μαθήματα, στα ενιαία λύκεια της
χώρας.

Οπως ανακοίνωσε το υπουργείο Παιδείας, ολοκληρώνεται αυτές τις μέρες η
βαθμολόγηση των γραπτών δοκιμίων των μαθημάτων της τελευταίας τάξης του
ενιαίου λυκείου, τα οποία εξετάστηκαν σε εθνικό επίπεδο, καθώς και ο
έλεγχος των βαθμών.

ΠΗΓΗ:HR-Net News Distribution Manager