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Η ΤΕΛΕΥΤΑΙΑ(16/07/10) ΕΚΘΕΣΗ ΤΗΣ ΧΟΥΝΤΑΣ ΤΟΥ ΔΝΤ

Posted by satyrikon στο 16 Ιουλίου, 2010

ΤΟ ΔΝΤ ΔΗΜΟΣΙΕΥΕΙ ΤΗΝ ΕΚΘΕΣΗ ΠΡΟΟΔΟΥ ΓΙΑ ΤΗΝ ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΗ ΚΑΤΑΣΤΑΣΗ ΣΤΗΝ ΕΛΛΑΔΑ ΟΠΟΥ ΕΙΝΑΙ ΧΑΡΑΚΤΗΡΙΣΤΙΚΗ Η ΑΠΟΥΣΙΑ ΕΝΔΙΑΦΕΡΟΝΤΟΣ ΓΙΑ ΤΟΥΣ ΑΝΘΡΩΠΟΥΣ ΠΟΥ ΖΟΥΝ ΣΤΗΝ ΕΛΛΑΔΑ.

ΑΥΤΟ ΠΟΥ ΧΑΡΑΚΤΗΡΙΖΕΙ ΤΗΝ ΕΚΘΕΣΗ ΕΙΝΑΙ Η ΑΠΟΤΥΧΙΑ ΤΟΥ ΕΚΠΟΝΗΘΕΝΤΟΣ ΣΧΕΔΙΟΥ ΤΟΥ ΔΝΤ ΤΟ ΟΠΟΙΟ ΑΓΝΟΕΙ ΤΑ ΚΥΡΙΑ ΧΑΡΑΚΤΗΡΙΣΤΙΚΑ ΤΗΣ ΑΝΘΡΩΠΙΝΗΣ ΣΥΜΠΕΡΙΦΟΡΑΣ ΑΠΕΝΑΝΤΙ ΣΤΑ ΛΗΦΘΕΝΤΑ Η ΛΑΜΒΑΝΟΜΕΝΑ ΜΕΤΡΑ ΤΑ ΟΠΟΙΑ ΟΠΩΣ ΦΑΙΝΕΤΑΙ ΘΑ ΜΕΙΝΟΥΝ ΚΕΝΑ ΠΕΡΙΕΧΟΜΕΝΟΥ.

NOTE ON THE INTERIM REPORT
The report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)— Stand-By Arrangement—Review
Under the Emergency Financing Mechanism—presents the findings of an IMF staff visit to
Athens during June 14-18, 2010. The visit was conducted in cooperation with the European
Commission and the ECB. The purpose of the visit was to conduct an interim review of
economic developments and policy implementation, as called for under the Fund’s
Emergency Financing Mechanism (EFM). The report confirms the preliminary conclusions
of the interim mission, (see Press Release No. 10/246). In particular, the program appears to
be broadly on track as authorities are making considerable progress in putting public finances
on a sustainable path and are implementing major reforms, including of the pension system,
ahead of schedule. A more comprehensive review of the program is scheduled for July 26-
August 6, 2010. Completion of this comprehensive review by the Fund’s Executive Board—
expected in early September—will make the next tranche under the stand-by arrangement of
SDR 2.1627 billion (about US$3.27 billion) available to the Greek authorities.
© 2010 International Monetary Fund July 2010
IMF Country Report No. 10/217
Greece: Stand-By Arrangement—
Review Under the Emergency Financing Mechanism
This paper was prepared based on the information available at the time it was completed on
Wednesday, June 30, 2010. The views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do
not necessarily reflect the views of the government of Greece or the Executive Board of the IMF.
The policy of publication of staff reports and other documents by the IMF allows for the deletion of
market-sensitive information.
Copies of this report are available to the public from
International Monetary Fund ● Publication Services
700 19th Street, N.W. ● Washington, D.C. 20431
Telephone: (202) 623-7430 ● Telefax: (202) 623-7201
E-mail: publications@imf.org ● Internet: http://www.imf.org
International Monetary Fund
Washington, D.C.


INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
GREECE
Stand-By Arrangement—Review Under the Emergency Financing Mechanism
Prepared by the European Department in Consultation with Other Departments
Approved by Poul Thomsen and Martin Mühleisen
June 30, 2010
Executive Summary
 Overarching strategy of the program. The authorities are making progress to put the public
finances on a sustainable path, complemented with structural reforms to boost competitiveness and
growth, while seeking an equitable distribution of the adjustment burden across all levels of society
and protecting the most vulnerable.
 Economic activity is declining as expected with the downturn projected to become more acute as
the year goes on. The decline is led by cuts in government spending, with some latent buoyancy in
private consumption. Inflation is running higher than expected as indirect tax increases are not
(even partially) absorbed in margins. Unit labor costs are, however, moderating considerably, and
unemployment is rising.
 State budget implementation is on track with good expenditure control. However, hospitals and
social security funds present clear risks, as do financial pressures in public enterprises. These three
areas are not directly controlled by the state budget and require more attention. The pension reform
contains significant reductions in future pension costs, even though it is not clear that the
authorities can bring them down from 12.5 ppts of GDP before the reform to 2.5 ppts in one step,
as aimed in the program. A full actuarial assessment of the reform will take more time than
foreseen in the program.
 Banks face continued liquidity pressures and some solvency erosion but plans are in place to
deal with this. Sharp downgrades of the sovereign led to margin calls on collateralized borrowing.
Deposits also are quite soft. That said, the European Central Bank (ECB) is assisting Greek banks
to tide them over the liquidity crunch. NPLs are rising but banks’ capital remains well above the
regulatory minimum and the Financial Stability Fund is nearly in place.
 Structural reforms are progressing. The authorities announced a privatization program, labor
reforms, a local government reform, and initiatives to liberalize closed professions. They are ahead
of schedule in setting up a public sector employment and wage census.
 Discussions took place on June 14‒18 with the Minister of Finance, Governor of the Bank of
Greece (BoG), Minister of Labor and Social Security, Minister of Interior, and staff in these and
other ministries and agencies, and private banks.
 Staff comprised P. Thomsen (head), B. Traa, G. Everaert, M. Moreno Badia (all EUR); S. Eble and
M. Soto (FAD); and Y. Sun (SPR). O. Frecaut and L. Zanforlin (MCM) and B. Jansen and A.
Gullo (LEG) conducted a parallel TA mission on the Financial Stability Fund, and assisted the
interim review mission, as did two parallel FAD TA teams in Public Financial Management and
Expenditure Policy.
2
Contents Page
I. Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………………….3
II. Recent Developments and Outlook ……………………………………………………………………………3
III. Policy Implementation ……………………………………………………………………………………………8
A. Fiscal Policy ………………………………………………………………………………………………10
B. Financial Sector ………………………………………………………………………………………….12
C. Structural Policy and Data Reporting…………………………………………………………….14
IV. Staff Appraisal …………………………………………………………………………………………………….15
Boxes
1. Inflation ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 7
2. The Pension Reform …………………………………………………………………………………………… 11
3. Update on the Financial Stability Fund …………………………………………………………………. 13
4. Public Sector Employment and Wages Census ………………………………………………………. 15
Figures
1. Financial Indicators, 2007–10 ………………………………………………………………………………… 4
2. Selected Indicators, 2000–10 …………………………………………………………………………………. 5
3. Labor Markets, 2001‒10 ……………………………………………………………………………………….. 6
4. Money and Banking Indicators, 2005–10 ………………………………………………………………… 9
Tables
1. Quantitative performance Criteria ………………………………………………………………………… 18
2. Structural Conditionality for 2010 ………………………………………………………………………… 19
3. Selected Economic Indicators ………………………………………………………………………………. 20
4. General Government Operations, 2009–15 ……………………………………………………………. 21
5. Public Sector Financing Requirements and Sources ……………………………………………….. 22
6. Summary of Balance Payments, 2009–15 ……………………………………………………………… 23
7. External Financing Requirements and Sources, 2008‒15 ………………………………………… 24
8. Core Set of Financial Soundness Indicators for Deposit Taking Institutions, 2000–10 … 25
9. Access and Phasing under the Proposed Stand-By Arrangement, 2010–13 ………………… 26
10. Indicators of Fund Credit …………………………………………………………………………………….. 27
11. Monetary Survey ………………………………………………………………………………………………… 28
12 Modified General Government Cash Balance for Program Monitoring. ……………………. 29

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