Αν κάνουμε πίσω τώρα τα χάνουμε όλα! Πατρίδα, ανθρώπους, ζωή…

 

Στέφανος Μυτιληναίος

Αρθρογράφος, Συγγραφέας

Στήνουν «σκηνικό Κύπρου», για να μας φοβίσουν… Να μας κάνουν να συρθούμε και να ικετέψουμε για έλεος.Μόνο που εάν αυτό συμβεί τώρα, με ΣΥΡΙΖΑ κυβέρνηση, θα είναι σαν να υπογράφουμε φαρδιά πλατιά την υποδούλωσή μας για τα επόμενα τουλάχιστον 100 χρόνια.Δεν ξέρω πώς αισθάνεστε εσείς, εάν φοβάστε ή όχι. Θα σας πω πώς αισθάνομαι εγώ.

Δεν φοβάμαι και δεν με νοιάζει.

Αλήθεια, πείτε μου, τι νόημα έχει μια ζωή δούλου;

Τι νόημα έχει να μεγαλώσουμε τα παιδιά μας σε μια χώρα που δεν θα τους ανήκει, που δεν θα ορίζουν ούτε την ίδια τη ζωή τους;

Είμαστε ένα αρχαίο έθνος που κάποτε υπήρξε δοξασμένο. Η δόξα μας δεν ήλθε από τις κατακτήσεις και τις αυτοκρατορίες, αλλά επειδή οι πρόγονοί μας γέννησαν μέσα από τα σπλάχνα του νου και της ψυχής τους τον Ορθό Λόγο, δηλαδή εκείνο τον τρόπο σκέψης και ζωής που τείνει να κάνει τον άνθρωπο να ομοιάσει με το Θείον.

Ακόμα και σήμερα στα πέρατα της Οικουμένης, στη Δύση και στην Ανατολή, το όνομα των Ελλήνων είναι συνώνυμο με τον Πολιτισμό, με τον Ανθρωπισμό, με την Αρετή.

Εδώ μόνο στον τόπο μας τα παραμελήσαμε αυτά, συμβιβαστήκαμε γενιές ολόκληρες με δουλοπρεπείς αντιλήψεις, της «ελλαδίτσας», της «ψωροκώσταινας», της μικρής πλην τίμιας Ελλάδας. Και ξεχάσαμε τα λόγια των πατέρων του έθνους μας, που πύρινα έρχονται μέσα από τους αιώνες: «Καλύτερα μιας ώρας ελεύθερη ζωή, παρά 40 χρόνια σκλαβιά και φυλακή».

Εάν είμαστε Έλληνες, εάν λέω, όχι στην ταυτότητα αλλά στον νου και την ψυχή, οφείλουμε να παραδειγματιζόμαστε από την ιστορία μας, αρχαία και νεώτερη και να ακολουθούμε τα βήματα εκείνων στους οποίους οφείλουμε την ύπαρξή μας.

Συλλογιστείτε απλά. Γιατί εκείνος ο Λεωνίδας στάθηκε στις Θερμοπύλες; Γιατί ο Κωνσταντίνος ο Παλαιολόγος στα τείχη της Πόλης; Γιατί το 40 τρέξαμε στα βουνά της Ηπείρου να μετρηθούμε με τον Μουσολίνι;

Και στις Θερμοπύλες, και στην Πόλη και το 40, υπήρχε επιλογή. Να παραδοθούμε, και θα μας άφηναν στην ησυχία μας.

Όπως και τώρα, αυτό μας λένε: παραδοθείτε και θα έχετε την ησυχία σας…

Αλλά πώς να αψηφήσεις τον Θουκυδίδη που σε διδάσκει: «ή ελεύθερος θα είσαι ή ήσυχος».

Υπερηφανευόμαστε οι Έλληνες, ότι είμαστε ο πρώτος λαός που συλλογίστηκε την έννοια της Ελευθερίας. Και τώρα μας ζητάνε να την ενταφιάσουμε.

Γιατί η ήττα, η υποταγή της Ελλάδας αδελφοί μου δεν είναι ένα ασήμαντο «περιφερειακό» γεγονός στην άκρη της μερκελικής Ευρώπης, είναι η μητέρα των μαχών για τους μισάνθρωπους νεοφιλελεύθερους προτεστάντες, που θέλουν και επιθυμούν να την κερδίσουν με λύσσα, για να απευθυνθούν μετά σε όλη την ανθρωπότητα και να της πουν:

«Δείτε τους Έλληνες, τους συνθλίψαμε. Εγκαταλείψτε λοιπόν τα άχρηστα βιβλία τους, που αιώνες τώρα σας γεμίζουν τα μυαλά με περιττές ιδέες για ελευθερία και αρετή και υποταχθείτε στην ισχύ μας. Γιατί εμείς που νικήσαμε τους Έλληνες και αποδείξαμε μέσα από τον θρίαμβό μας την ελληνική πλάνη, εμείς είμαστε η μοναδική αλήθεια που οφείλετε να ασπαστείτε, να πιστέψετε, πειθήνια να αποδεχτείτε. Και με τον τρόπο ζωής που εμείς ορίζουμε θα ζείτε, γιατί είναι μάταια και ανεφάρμοστα όσα σας δίδαξαν οι Έλληνες»…

Αυτό θα πουν και θα απλώσουν πάνω από τον όμορφο πλανήτη μας το πιο πυκνό, το πιο απόλυτο, το πιο ασφυκτικό μεσαιωνικό σκοτάδι και θα χαθεί για πάντα η χαρά, η αξιοπρέπεια, η ομορφιά της ζωής, η αρμονία της πλάσης που τόσο μελωδικά ύμνησαν Ελύτης, Σικελιανός στα δικά μας χρόνια.

Δεν ξέρω τι θα κάνει ο καθένας σας. Οι αγώνες των Ελλήνων είναι εθελοντικοί και στην τελική κανείς δεν υποχρεούται να είναι ούτε Έλληνας, ούτε ελεύθερος.

Αλλά όσοι επιλέξετε να είστε Έλληνες και ελεύθεροι να ξέρετε ότι δεν έχετε την πολυτέλεια του φόβου, την επιλογή της «ησυχίας» της σκλαβιάς..

Εδώ θα σταθούμε όρθιοι και θα πολεμήσουμε. Κι αν είναι να πέσουμε, όρθιοι να πέσουμε και όχι γονατιστοί, όπως μας δίδαξαν οι πρόγονοί μας.

Σήμερα αγωνιζόμαστε, όπως χιλιάδες χρόνια το κάνουμε, για τις ζωές μας, για τους ανθρώπους μας, για την πατρίδα μας και για τον κόσμο ολόκληρο.

Κι αν νικήσουμε χαρά όμοιά της δεν θα έχουμε ξαναζήσει.

Κι αν χάσουμε τουλάχιστον δεν θα κουβαλάμε για το υπόλοιπο της μίζερης ζωής μας τη ντροπή, την ώρα που θα ξεψυχάμε στο νεκροκρέβατο, στην τελευταία μας ανάσα, να τυραννιόμαστε σαν καταραμένοι από τις τύψεις της δειλίας, ότι αφήσαμε μια ζωή να πάει χαμένη ως σκλάβοι…

Αυτά ήθελα να σας πω αδελφοί μου, και συγνώμη εάν έγινα περισσότερο κουραστικός από ό,τι συνήθως…

ΠΗΓΗ

 

Διαδικασίες ελέγχου με αντικείμενο τη Gazprom ξεκινά η Κομισιόν

Gazprom (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Διαδικασίες ελέγχου με αντικείμενο το ρωσικό γιγαντιαίο όμιλο φυσικού αερίου Gazprom ξεκίνησε η Κομισιόν, διατηρώντας υποψίες «παρεμποδίζει τον ανταγωνισμό στις αγορές φυσικού αερίου στην Κεντρική και Ανατολική Ευρώπη», όπως αναφέρει.

Συγκεκριμένα, η Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή έχει υποψίες κυρίως για την Gazprom ότι «παρεμπόδισε τη διαφοροποίηση του εφοδιασμού με φυσικό αέριο» σε αυτές τις χώρες «και επιβάλλει στους πελάτες της αδικαιολόγητες τιμές φυσικού αερίου συνδέοντάς τις με την τιμή του πετρελαίου».

The legislative triangle of the European Union (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

EU Launches Antirust Case Against Natural Gas Giant Gazpromia

When it comes to who controls Europe, the answer is simple – hint: it is not Goldman Sachs via its puppets Mario Monti or Mario Draghi. Nor is it Angela Merkel. No – the entity in charge of the continent of 300+ million is the nation-corporation known as Gazpromia, which also happens to be is the holding company of the new and somewhat improved USSR, aka Russia. Why? Because if Gazpromia decided to play the vengeful god role it is known to embrace now and then, it could simply shut down the gas pipeline to Europe and millions of people would realize that heating in deep subzero temperatures is far, far more important than having a (un)stable currency or wheelbarrows full of money. As such, it is always better to let sleeping gods lie. Oddly enough, Europe decided to not do that, and moments ago the WSJ and BBG reported that the EU has decided to bite the hand that warms it and has launched an antrust case against Gazprom.

• EU OPENS ANTITRUST CASE AGAINST GAZPROM
• GAZPROM SUSPECTED BY EU OF HINDERING COMPETITION IN GAS MARKETS
• GAZPROM MAY BE ABUSING DOMINANCE IN UPSTREAM GAS SUPPLY MARKETS
• GAZPROM MAY HAVE PREVENTED GAS SUPPLY DIVERSIFICATION, EU SAYS
• GAZPROM MAY HAVE UNFAIRLY LINKED PRICE OF GAS TO OIL PRICES

Did Gazprom do any/all of this? Of course: monopolists can do anything they want. Keyword being monopolists. As a result those whose markets Gazprom supplied with all critical natural gas, which in Europe is everyone, must take it like it, or else. Because when it comes to threats, whereas Mario Draghi’s are absolutely hollow, and are merely perfected in the Goldman Sachs school of «what to do when you are not being taken seriously» (as practiced by that other Goldmanite Hank Paulson in the US 4 years ago), those from Gazprom, should the company decided to retaliate will mean the European winter will be not only depressionary, but very, very cold. And Europe may have just made sure of not only the former, but also the latter.

From that other monpoly, this time of infinite central planning complexity and endless bureacuracy – the EU

Antitrust: Commission opens proceedings against Gazprom

The European Commission has opened formal proceedings to investigate whether Gazprom, the Russian producer and supplier of natural gas, might be hindering competition in Central and Eastern European gas markets, in breach of EU antitrust rules. An opening of proceedings does not prejudge the outcome of the investigation; it only means that the Commission will treat the case as a matter of priority.

The Commission has concerns that Gazprom may be abusing its dominant market position in upstream gas supply markets in Central and Eastern European Member States, in breach of Article 102 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

The Commission is investigating three suspected anti-competitive practices in Central and Eastern Europe. First, Gazprom may have divided gas markets by hindering the free flow of gas across Member States. Second, Gazprom may have prevented the diversification of supply of gas. Finally, Gazprom may have imposed unfair prices on its customers by linking the price of gas to oil prices.

Such behaviour, if established, may constitute a restriction of competition and lead to higher prices and deterioration of security of supply. Ultimately, such behaviour would harm EU consumers.

In September 2011, the Commission carried out inspections at the premises of gas companies in several Member States (see MEMO/11/641).

Background

Article 102 TFEU prohibits the abuse of a dominant position which may affect trade between Member States. The implementation of this provision is defined in the Antitrust Regulation (Council Regulation No 1/2003), which can be applied by the Commission and by the national competition authorities of EU Member States.

Article 11(6) of the Antitrust Regulation provides that the initiation of proceedings by the Commission relieves the competition authorities of the Member States of their competence to also apply EU competition rules to the practices concerned. Article 16(1) of the same Regulation provides that national courts must avoid giving decisions which would conflict with a decision contemplated by the Commission in proceedings it has initiated.

The Commission has informed Gazprom and the competition authorities of the Member States that it has opened proceedings in this case.

There is no legal deadline to complete inquiries into anti-competitive conduct. The duration of an antitrust investigation depends on a number of factors, including the complexity of the case, the extent to which the undertaking concerned cooperates with the Commission and the exercise of the rights of defence.

More information on this investigation will be available in the Commission’s public case register under the case number 39816.

 

 

ΖΑΝ ΚΛΩΝΤ ΓΙΟΥΝΚΕΡ, ΕΝΑΣ ΠΑΘΟΛΟΓΙΚΟΣ ΨΕΥΤΗΣ-The Truth Behind Juncker’s Lies: In The Second Largest Greek City, 1250 Companies Have Shuttered In 2012 | ZeroHedge

English: Jean-Claude Juncker at the EPP summit in October 2010 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

European viceroy of various neo-colonial territories Jean-Claude Juncker, best known for being a self-professed pathological liar, just concluded a press conference in which he did what he does best: lie. Here is a sampling of the soundbites along with our commentary:

• EU’S JUNCKER SAYS TRUTH IS GREECE SUFFERS CREDIBILITY CRISIS – coming from a pathological liar, this one is our favorite
• EU’S JUNCKER SAYS CONVINCED GOVERNMENT WILL TAKE ALL MEASURES. «all measures» = «all gold»
• EU’S JUNCKER: FULLY CONFIDENT GOVERNMENT TO TAKE ALL EFFORTS «all efforts» = «all gold»
• EU’S JUNCKER SAYS GREECE MUST OPEN UP CLOSED PROFESSIONS.  Chimneysweep? Bootblack? Telegraph Operator? Tax Collector? Prosecutor? Uncorrupted muppet?
  
• EU’S JUNCKER SAYS BALL IS IN GREEK COURT; IS LAST CHANCE. The ball will be repoed to the ECB shortly
• EU’S JUNCKER SAYS NOT SAYING THERE WON’T EVER BE A 3RD PROGRAM or 33rd program
• EU’S JUNCKER SAYS GREEK EURO EXIT WOULD BE RISK TO EURO AREA and Obama’s reelection
• EU’S JUNCKER SAYS BALL IS IN GREEK COURT; not for long: ball will soon be repoed to the ECB

And much more propaganda. Here is the truth. According to Greek Thema, in Thessaloniki, the second-largest city in Greece, so far in 2012, an unprecedented 1,250 companies have shut down. This means no jobs, no tax revenues, no money in circulation. A complete and total economic collapse.

So let us explain: while Greece and Europe may engage in endless check kiting Ponzi schemes: such as the most recent one, whereby Greece promises to pay Germany by issuing bills, bought by its banks, which in turn are repoed to the ECB via the ELA, with the cash used by the country to pay Germany and the ECB, even as Germany’s contingent liabilities get more massive by funding the ECB’s capital, the reality is that unless someone does some work, and creates real wealth, real money, instead of merely shuffling electronic cash from Point A to Point B, while the only thing increasing are German contingent liabilities, aka systemic debt, absolutely nothing will change.

μέσω The Truth Behind Juncker’s Lies: In The Second Largest Greek City, 1250 Companies Have Shuttered In 2012 | ZeroHedge.

 

 

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GREECE EXCLUSIVE: ‘Deal has been done to pay off bondholders and forgive residue of debt’ | A diary of deception and distortion

Samaras…big secret, upping the pace of austerity

FRENCH DIPLOMATIC SOURCE CONFIRMS BIG NEW CONTAINMENT PLAN FOR GREECE

‘What the deal does is allow another default date to come and go with everyone pretending it hasn’t happened.’

Another day, another bonkers conspiracy theory from The Slog. Greece has done a deal to put the lid on the Greek crisis? Pah! Formation of Greek/Israeli/Cyprus/US alliance? Fiddlesticks!

Let’s take the deal first.

There is a tradition in Greek politics that the government of the day delivers a speech and holds a press conference during the annual Thessaloniki International Trade Fair. Organized by Helexpo, it takes place every September at the Thessaloniki International Exhibition Centre. This convention of a sounding-board for those in power has been going on since 1926. Only during the German Occupation was it interrupted.

But the Samaras government has decided to neither speak nor take questions. No explanation is being given as to why. Another email from a regular Athenian media contact:

“Something has been agreed, and whatever it is has made the bondholders and the Troika irrelevant overnight. There are half-hearted references to repayment schedules, but they don’t have that sense of panic evident just a few short weeks ago. But you can see that Samaras is now pushing for more austerity progress.”

He is indeed. Greek media are reporting that Prime Minister Samaras told government ministers to complete work this month on 77 amendments to be included in a bill that aims to speed up state asset sales.

One clue comes from a senior tax office executive who has blown whistles to The Slog before.

“I think the Troika made a catastrophic error some days ago,” this person told me yesterday, “either that, or they did this deed to create a showdown. I don’t know which, but it concerns the EU demand that the Greek civil service should have its headcount drastically reduced. Samaras and Stournaris are all for it, Venizelos [PASOK] is nervously against, and Fotis Kouvelis [Democratic Left] is flatly refusing to even consider it. No crooked politician in Greece dares to attack the civil service, for obvious reasons. This is a major sticking point”.

It’s an interesting view, but it doesn’t on its own in any way explain the dramatic change in Troika/bondholder v Government atmosphere the week before last. Somebody, somewhere in Europe flicked a switch within the last ten days, and everyone relaxed.

Now a close French diplomatic contact has told The Slog:

“Brussels or Berlin…or both…or others…have given Samaras a big reassurance that if he sticks with the [austerity] programme, Greece will not be thrown out of the euro. Those same people have given similar assurances to the key players in the IMF and bondholder groups…that if they take another haircut, the EU will pay off the balance and give them their money back. The secrecy is to do with Merkel being flayed alive at home if they thought she was doing this, and Draghi ensuring that his central bank doesn’t become an open door for insolvent States and panicky bondholders.”

Now this is an interesting one: the talks stick over the issue of bureaucrat firings, so somebody decides to break the deadlock using a judicious mixture of EU acting like a sovereign plus debt forgiveness. But it will be packaged in such a way as to disguise what it is. This is, of course, precisely what the ECB has done over Spain, and to some extent Italy; so to that extent it rings true. Has Draghi engineered this deal as the next step in neutering Germany…or has he formed some sort of pact with Merkel during her holiday – which ends tomorrow? Are the Americans in the loop?

I don’t know for certain: but logic points the finger at Mario Draghi.

This Tuesday, Athens will auction some short-term bonds to pay off the €3.2 billion bond repayment due on Aug.20. Greece being able to do this successfully will avoid the country having to seek yet more emergency funding on top of the bailout loans it receives from EU and IMF funds.

The €3.2 billion bond that matures August 20th is held by the European Central Bank.

It seemed odd that nobody looked concerned by everyone going on holiday with default due on August 20th. Now we know why. What the deal does is allow another default date to come and go with everyone pretending it hasn’t happened. Success or failure after the bond issuance, the ‘Greeks’ will meet the maturity date.

It is becoming increasingly potty to stick with the view that nothing is going on here. As the Economist points out this week:

‘There is a common fallacy, not least in Germany, that dropping the Greeks would be a fairly costless way to teach a useful lesson. In fact the European Central Bank (ECB) owns Greek bonds with a face value of €40 billion ($50 billion), which would be converted into devalued drachma and which Greece might not service. A further €130 billion or so of loans that Greece received in the bail-out would have to be written down, or written off. The €100 billion of the temporary debts Greece has stacked up in the ECB’s payments system would crystallise into a loss. Add in a one-off grant of say €50 billion to tide Greece over—call it conscience-salving “solidarity”—and the bill might come to €320 billion. Estimating the price of a “Grexit” is guesswork, but Germany’s share might reach €110 billion of this, about 4% of the country’s GDP.’

Those nutters at the Economist, eh? What will they come up with next?

Now for the strategic alliance story. Starting from the vantage point of Greece-Turkey relations over Cyprus, I was (I think) the first to point out that Putin was trying to strengthen his ties with the Greek Cypriot regime. I also posted several times earlier this year about Turkish raw material ambitions in the Aegean, and the virulently anti-Israel stance being taken by that nice, normal Recep Erdogan. The comms/energy pipeline agreement between Greece, Cyprus and Israel quickly followed as a topic here, and now – following the visit of Shimon Peres to Athens last week – comes further evidence of a cemented alliance.

The output from the visit is that Greece and Israel will move towards much closer cooperation on defense issues, including the joint manufacture of defence systems. Government sources confirmed this to news-site Ekathimerini, adding that the Syrian bloodbath and arrival of warships warships in the Southeastern Mediterranean have confirmed the two sides’ mutual view that closer defensive cooperation is essential. A senior bod in the Israeli Ministry of Defence, Shmaya Avieli, will visit Greece before the end of August to continue the talks and scope out some projects.

Clearly, neither side is hanging about on this one. But it’s all just more Slogbollocks anyway, so I wouldn’t worry over there at the Foreign Office, chaps. You just carry on getting it completely wrong: it’s a long-standing tradition, and it’d be a shame to change it now.

μέσω GREECE EXCLUSIVE: ‘Deal has been done to pay off bondholders and forgive residue of debt’ | A diary of deception and distortion.

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• S&P: Greece will need a further assistance of 7 billion

ΔΙΑΜΕΣΟΛΑΒΗΤΗΣ ΤΗΣ Ε.Ε.:Ο ΜΑΡΙΟ ΝΤΡΑΓΚΙ ΕΧΕΙ ΠΡΟΒΛΗΜΑ ΑΣΥΜΒΙΒΑΣΤΟΥ ΛΟΓΩ ΤΗΣ ΕΡΓΑΣΙΑΣ ΤΟΥ ΣΤΗΝ ΓΚΟΛΝΤΜΑΝ ΣΑΚΣ…

ΤΟ ΑΝΑΚΑΛΥΨΑΝ ΚΑΙ ΑΥΤΟ ΛΙΑΝ ΟΨΙΜΩΣ :

ΟΠΩΣ

ΟΙ ΤΡΙΛΑΤΕΡΙΣΤΕΣ ΠΡΩΘΥΠΟΥΡΓΟΙ ΕΛΛΑΔΑΣ

ΚΑΙ ΙΤΑΛΙΑΣ

ΓΙΑ ΤΟΥΣ ΟΠΟΙΟΥΣ ΔΕΝ ΑΚΟΥΣΤΗΚΕ ΚΙΧ, Ο ΣΟΥΠΕΡ ΜΑΡΙΟ

ΛΟΓΩ ΤΗΣ ΓΚΟΛΝΤΜΑΝ ΣΑΚΣ

Image via CrunchBase

ΕΧΕΙ ΠΡΟΒΛΗΜΑ ΣΥΓΚΡΟΥΣΗΣ ΣΥΜΦΕΡΟΝΤΩΝ

ΤΗΣ ΘΕΣΗΣ ΠΟΥ ΚΑΤΕΙΧΕ ΜΕ ΤΗΝ ΘΕΣΗ

ΠΟΥ ΚΑΤΕΧΕΙ ΚΑΙ ΑΛΛΑ ΤΙΝΑ.

ΔΙΑΒΑΣΤΕ

EU Ombudsman To Probe Mario Draghi’s Conflicts Of Interest

First some German dares to suggest Mario Draghi’s ECB should be sued for getting a «bigger than god complex», and now the EU’s ombudsman has the temerity to suggest Mario Draghi may have conflicts of interest due to his previous jobs, most notably at Goldman Sachs, a topic beaten to death on these pages… and various other factors.  From Spiegel: «As soon as you took office, there were discussions about his past in the U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs – now has Mario Draghi, head of the European Central Bank, and problems with the EU ombudsman. It’s about the membership of an influential banking lobby organization.» What are the «other factors»: well, one is Draghi’s presence in the Group of 30 which as we have explained previously, is the real behind the scenes central planning group which decides the fate and future of the world (an extended write up here). The other factor? Mario’s son Giacomo, who just happens to work as an interest rate trader at Morgan Stanley London.

Courtesy of LinkedIn.

A Vice President interest rate trader? In London? When his father is the one man who singlehandedly sets interest rats? No conflict of interest there at all…

One thing is certain: unlike various hedge funds, most recently virtually every major fund in Geneva, and even Brevan Howard, Morgan Stanley will never be implicated in Lieborgate and rate manipulation.

Ever.

μέσω EU Ombudsman To Probe Mario Draghi’s Conflicts Of Interest | ZeroHedge.

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Citi’s Buiter: Greece will be forced out of the euro regardless of who wins the Sunday elections | ZeroHedge

New Democracy. Syriza. Doesn’t matter. According to Citi’s senior political analyst Tina Fordham, chief economist Willem Buiter, and global economist Ebrahim Rahbari, «any new Greek government, regardless of its composition, will struggle with implementation challenges related to the imposition of further austerity measures demanded by the Troika in exchange for further assistance,» and as a result, they «consider it likely that a new troika deal would ultimately fall apart and lead to Grexit.»

Citi notes that there is growing sense among European leaders that «promotion of economic growth can no longer be subordinated completely, even in fiscally unsustainable euro area member states, to the requirements of fiscal austerity,» but no one has any idea what that means.

This seems to be the current thinking, according to Citi:

 

 

The only operational, practical consensus on growth is that austerity policies should not be unnecessarily pro-cyclical. If a deficit target is overshot because of bad luck (economic activity and government revenues are weaker than expected despite full adherence to all conditionality) rather than bad faith (there has been a failure to implement agreed measures or policies), the shortfall will not have to be made up immediately – in the original time frame. More time will be given to achieve the original objectives without the need for deeper and faster austerity than originally envisaged. Bad faith (non-compliance) will, for incentive-compatibility or moral hazard reasons, continue to be punished with demand for enhanced and faster austerity.

Warning. Also, reminder: «And of course, reduced austerity does not mean no austerity, let alone the reversal of austerity…fiscal policy will remain contractionary overall – just less contractionary.»

Citi’s doesn’t think Greece is able to handle any more austerity, and its rapidly deteriorating fiscal condition is hastening a day of reckoning. On how and when Greek membership in the euro ends:

 

 

A possible trigger would be the determination by the IMF following the first or second assessment, that it cannot disburse its next installment due under the current programme because the Greek programme is not fully funded for 12 months after the assessment. In that case some of the smaller core euro area member states that have made their contributions to the Greek EFSF programme conditional on the IMF disbursing would probably drop out too. The Greek sovereign would then be forced to default. Then the ECB would stop funding the Greek banks through the Eurosystem and through the Greek ELA. With neither the Greek sovereign nor the Greek banks having access to the lender of last resort, we believe Greece would probably leave the eurozone, as some liquidity through the issuance of New Drachma is better than no liquidity.

The Citi team says that «more generally, we are concerned at the prospect of formerly wealthy countries becoming ‘new, critical fragile states.'» This is where things get really messy. They don’t think the ECB, EU, et al. will even let Greece go financially when things get really bad as described above. More like this:

 

 

In order to prevent such a scenario, we believe that even if “Grexit” were to occur, Greece would stay in the European Union and receive some form of Troika or other external assistance, most likely through the Balance of Payments facility run by the European Commission and the IMF for non-euro area EU member states. Since 2008, Latvia, Hungary and Romania have been under such programmes. Support from the EIB, and from Structural and Cohesion funds would also be likely to be forthcoming. We would also expect the ECB to continue to support the Bank of Greece after a Grexit. After all, the Greek central bank would exit the Eurosystem with considerable euro-denominated debt to the Eurosystem (this could be its Target2 net debit balance – something around €100bn, or its share of the total losses suffered by the Eurosystem as a result of Greek exit, however this would be established, net of the capital it has paid into the ECB, which would, in principle, be refundable on exit).

And the darkness is spreading through Europe. The «seeds of dystopia» are being planted:

 

 

Throughout the euro area periphery, and indeed beyond it in the ‘soft core’ of the euro area, the potential for the so-called “seeds of dystopia” referred to in the WEF Global Risks report remains a key long-term risk to European political stability and competitiveness, as youth unemployment rises and the social contract between states and citizens erodes. The burdens of this adjustment fall disproportionately on young people, as evidenced in youth unemployment exceeding 50% in Greece and Spain and unacceptably high everywhere in the periphery and the euro area at large. We continue to take the view that political change in Europe will continue to take place in the ballot box, but note the rising risk of frequent changes in government, street violence and other upheaval in a more fraught environment undermining both political and social consensus when it is most needed. However, unlike in the Middle East and North Africa, European countries do not have an age pyramid, but rather an inverted one, making it less likely that inter-generational conflict will propel rapid change in political outcomes towards more growth and employment-friendly policies.

DailyCollateral.com // @DailyCollateral

 

Citi’s Buiter: Greece will be forced out of the euro regardless of who wins the Sunday elections | ZeroHedge.

Greece — What Matters And What Does Not | ZeroHedge

From Mark Grant, author of Out of the Box

Greece—What matters and What does Not

The bond market is heading East while the equity markets heads West because they have two totally different focuses at present. I have seen this often enough in my almost four decades on Wall Street and I am always amused when this differentiation takes place. It is really just a reaction to what either market is staring at that causes this phenomenon to take place and, eventually, one market proves to be correct while the other gallops along to catch up. The stock markets seem buoyed by the possibility of the more EU friendly government to win this Sunday’s election and they are taking comfort in the hope for support of the world’s major central banks and the possibility of more easing; a new or redefined QE3. The fixed income people are concentrating on the possibility of a systemic financial shock, the recession in Europe that will affect the United States and the plight of the European banks. In my experience the bond markets generally get it right and get there first and I expect nothing different this time.

Let us calmly consider the facts as we can ferret them out and change our focus to reality and not what we are spoon fed by the Europeans. Greece has a total debt of about $1.3 trillion. This is composed of their sovereign debt, which Europe counts, and then their $90 billion in derivatives, their Federally guaranteed regional debt, their sovereign guaranteed bank and corporate debt, their obligations to the EU and finally their loans at the other central banks. It is just simple addition and not my opinion; I am just counting all of the liabilities while Europe does not. Then if you take their GDP and divide it by their total debt you get a debt to GDP ratio of around 453%. You may claim, and somewhat correctly, there is value in some of their assets which would be an off-set in case of actual default but the problem here is that they are a sovereign nation so how one would lay claim to any Greeks assets would be quite problematical.

UKIP Nigel Farage on Spanish Bailout- The genius of Mutual indebtedness – June 2012

 

UKIP Nigel Farage on Spanish Bailout- The genius of Mutual indebtedness – June 2012 – YouTube.

ZeroHedge | On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

Here we go:

EU SOURCES HAVE DISCUSSED IMPOSING CAPITAL CONTROLS AS WORST CASE SCENARIO IF GREECE LEAVES EUROZONE – RTRS

IMPOSING BORDER CHECKS, LIMITING ATM WITHDRAWALS ALSO PART OF WORST-CASE SCENARIO PLANNING – EU SOURCES – RTRS

SUSPENSION OF SCHENGEN ALSO DISCUSSED

In other words, that money you thought you had… You don’t really have it. We can only hope this message was not meant to restore confidence and prevent future bank runs. Because if Europe wanted a continental bank run, it may have just gotten one.

This is getting scary very fast.

via ZeroHedge | On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.

As European FinMins Discuss Giving Spain €100 Billion, Spain Has Yet To Request A Bailout | ZeroHedge

The European financial ministers’ meeting started at 4:00 pm CET. What are they discussing? According to the WSJ, nothing short of «a commitment to provide as much as €100 billion ($125 billion) in support for Spain’s ailing banking sector.» At least we now know that that Spanish bank trot so widely avoided by the mainstream media was just a little more kinetically-charged than previously expected, because for Spain to actually demand the money, even if implicitly, it means it has a capital shortfall, which can only arise from an outflow of liquidity, as mere real estate impairments do not have any impact on liquidity. So far so good. There is only one problem: Spain has yet to formally request the money! According to newspaper ABC, «Spain wants to convince European partners that IMF shouldn’t participate in aid for country’s banks because of potential stigma.

via As European FinMins Discuss Giving Spain €100 Billion, Spain Has Yet To Request A Bailout | ZeroHedge.