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Posts Tagged ‘Italy’

Η ΘΕΩΡΙΑ ΤΩΝ ΠΑΙΓΝΙΩΝ-Η ΙΤΑΛΙΑ ΚΑΙ Η ΙΡΛΑΝΔΙΑ (ΚΑΙ ΟΧΙ Η ΕΛΛΑΔΑ) ΘΑ ΒΓΟΥΝ ΑΠΟ ΤΟ ΕΥΡΩ-For Italy, It Is Game Theory Over | ZeroHedge

Posted by satyrikon στο Ιουλίου 27, 2012

montibond-eurobond
montibond-eurobond (Photo credit: francesco elisei LI)

We discussed the use of Game Theory as a useful tool for analyzing Europe’s predicament in February and noted that it was far from optimal for any (peripheral or core) sovereign to pre-emptively ‘agree’ to austerity or Eurobonds respectively (even though that would make both better off).

This Prisoner’s Dilemma left the ugly Nash-Equilibrium game swinging
from a catastrophic break-up to a long, painful (and volatile)
continuation of the crisis. Recent work by BofAML’s FX team takes this a
step further and in assigning incentives and from a ‘do-not-cooperate’ Nash-equilibrium between Greece and Germany
(no Greek austerity and no Eurobonds) they extend the single-period
game across the entire group of European nations – with an ugly outcome.
Analyzing the costs and benefits of a voluntary exit from the euro-area
for the core and periphery countries, the admittedly over-simplified
results are worrying. Italy and Ireland (not Greece) are expected to exit first
(with Italy having a decent chance of an orderly exit) and while
Germany is the most likely to achieve an orderly exit, it has the lowest
incentive to exit the euro-zone – since growth, borrowing costs, and a
weakening balance sheet would cause more pain. Ultimately, they play the
game out and find while Germany could ‘bribe’ Italy to stay, they will not accept and Italy will optimally exit first – suggesting a very dark future ahead for the Eurozone and with EUR tail-risk so cheap, it seems an optimal trade – as only a weaker EUR can save the Euro.

The cost of insuring against EUR tail risk, which was already in retreat even before the EU Summit, has fallen further since, is at 2 year lows.

Should investors view these developments as a sign that the worst of
the crisis is now behind us, or should they see them as providing an opportunity to pick up cheap EUR tail risk insurance? We would argue for the latter.

To some extent, the drop in tail risk premium is a reflection of the poor performance of tail risk hedges in the past two years.
It is also possible that investors have reduced their exposures to
eurozone assets so much that their need for insurance against EUR
downside risk has simply diminished. We are skeptical about the wisdom
of this consensus. Recent political developments in the eurozone have
given us good reasons to think that the EUR breakup risk is not falling
but rising

We employ game theory and a cost-benefit analysis to explain
why in our view the market may be underpricing the voluntary exit of one
or more countries
.

Uncooperative outcome dominates

One of the most provocative observations of modern game theory is
that the most likely outcome is not always Pareto optimal. Put
differently, the dominant strategy for game players is not always to
cooperate, even when everyone is better off if they do.

The most famous illustration of this is the Prisoner’s Dilemma.
In this game, two men are arrested. The police offer both men a similar
deal. If one testifies against the other, and the other stays silent,
the betrayer goes free while the one who remains silent gets a one-year
sentence. If both remain silent, they will each get a one-month
sentence. If both decide to testify against the other, each will get a
three-month sentence. Even though both will be better off if they stay
silent, the “Nash equilibrium” is that both men will testify against each other. This is because from the perspective of each prisoner, regardless of what the other person does, he can be better off by betraying...

The prisoner’s dilemma problem can help us better understand the
dynamics of the eurozone crisis, in our view. Below (Table 1), we
present a highly abstract, stylized form of the game that Germany and Greece have been playing for the last two years.
Greece is given two options: austerity or no austerity. Germany also
has two options: Eurobonds or no Eurobonds. For each of the four
possible outcomes, we assign a certain payoff for each country that is
meant to be illustrative, but captures the essence of the different
political/economic considerations of the two countries.

 

As the payoffs in Table 1 imply, both countries would fare
better if they choose to cooperate (Greece agreeing to austerity while
Germany agreeing to Eurobonds) than if they do not cooperate (no
austerity and no Eurobonds)
. However, Greece would be even
better off if it chooses no austerity but Germany agrees to Eurobonds.
Similarly, the best outcome for Germany is that it opts for no Eurobonds
but Greece chooses austerity. We assume that neither country knows what
the other country is going to do before it has to decide on a course of
action…

It is easy to see that the Nash equilibrium is no austerity and no Eurobonds (uncooperative equilibrium).
This is because from the point of view of Greece, regardless of what
Germany chooses, it will be better off if it opts for no austerity.
Similarly, from the point of view of Germany, regardless of what Greece
does, it will be better off if it chooses no Eurobonds. As with the
Prisoner’s Dilemma, no austerity and no Eurobonds can be shown to be the
Nash equilibrium (using backward induction) even if we were to allow
for the game to be played repeatedly.

In our view, the fact that the dominant strategy for both
countries is not to cooperate is why more than two years into the crisis
Greece is not closer to implementing a credible reform program and
Germany is not any closer to agreeing to Eurobonds

The obstacle is that neither side is able to make a credible pre-commitment to doing the “right thing,” to the extent that there is no enforcement mechanism to ensure that each country lives up to its promises.

The lack of an enforcement mechanism is why the
Germans are demanding that fiscal union will have to precede Eurobonds.
Fiscal union, by taking fiscal policy out of the hands of the national
governments, solves the pre-commitment problem. However, very few
eurozone countries are willing to entertain the notion of giving up
their independent fiscal policy, especially given that, as members of
the monetary union, they do not have recourse to an independent monetary
policy.

The economics of voluntary exit

If the eurozone is no closer to a fiscal union and Eurobonds, we need to consider other potential outcomes of the crisis.
Much has been said about involuntary exit from the eurozone , but what
about the chances of a voluntary exit, meaning a country (or multiple
countries) opting to call it quits on its (their) own accord?

A decision to stay or exit should be dictated by a cost and benefit
analysis. What are some of the considerations that should go into such
an analysis? In our view, there are four key questions that will have to be answered before any such decision can be made:

  • What are the chances for an orderly exit?
  • What is the impact on growth following an exit?
  • What is the impact on borrowing costs following an exit?
  • What is the impact on the country’s balance sheet following an exit?

These are all detailed in the paper below…

Final scores

To reach a final tally of the relative incentives that different
countries are facing to voluntarily exit the euro, we add up the
rankings across the above four criteria. For simplicity, we attach the
same weight to each of our four sets of considerations. The results are
in Table 6.
Two very interesting results emerge:

  • Even though much of the market focus on exit risk has been on Greece, Italy and Ireland have the highest relative incentive to voluntarily exit the euro,
    by our analysis. In the case of Italy, it faces a relatively higher
    chance of achieving an orderly exit and it stands to benefit
    significantly from competitive gains, growth gains and even balance
    sheet gains. No wonder former Prime Minister Berlusconi has been
    recently quoted as saying that leaving the euro is not a “blasphemy.”
    Among the peripheral countries, Spain appears to have the lowest
    relative incentive to leave.
  • While Germany is the country most likely to achieve an
    orderly exit from the Euro, it also has the lowest incentive of any
    country to leave
    , in our view. It would suffer from lower
    growth, possibly higher borrowing costs, and negative balance sheet
    effect. Austria, Finland and Belgium don’t have strong incentive to
    leave, either.

 

Can Germany “bribe” Italy to stay?

What we have established in the previous section is that the incentive to leave the euro varies from country to country. Among the major economies, we believe Italy stands the most to gain from exiting, whereas Germany has the most to lose from exiting.
We would argue for the same reason that Germany would also lose from
the exit of other countries. (Say Italy leaves the euro but Germany
stays. German holdings of Italian liabilities would fall in value,
German exports to Italy would suffer and German companies would now face
more competitive Italian manufacturing firms.) Does this mean
that Germany would be willing to pay a price for Italy (as it has for
Greece, Ireland, and Portugal) to stay in the euro?

Yes, but we would argue that this strategy is not a stable Nash equilibrium. To illustrate this, think of the following game…

What is the Nash equilibrium of this game?

We can use backward induction to solve the game. In period 3, Italy
is clearly better off exiting than staying (after Germany has already
paid the “bribe”), as the payoff for Italy in outcome 4 is inferior to
the payoff in outcome 3. If we can see this, so can Germany in period 2.
Whether it pays or not, Italy will exit in the following period.
Therefore, Germany is better off by not paying. Now in period 1, Italy
can make the informed calculation that Germany will not pay. This means
that Italy has an incentive to exit in period 1. The bottom line
is that the only stable equilibrium of this game is that Italy exits
the euro and, more importantly, it exits already in period 1.

This game and the
analysis in the previous section would suggest that we should not expect
what has already happened between Germany and Greece during the
eurozone crisis to play out the same way for Italy if the crisis
spreads.
Italy has more incentives than Greece to
voluntarily exit the eurozone, in our view, while it will be more
expensive for Germany to keep Italy in the eurozone. This means that
Italy could be even more reluctant than Greece to accept tough
conditionalities for staying. If our inference turns out to be correct, this could have serious negative implications for markets in the months ahead.

Only a weak EUR can save the EUR

Despite the depreciation of the euro in the last three years, its
trade weighted index is in the middle of its range of the last 30 years,
and still nearly 10% stronger than where it was in 2000. Against the
USD, it is still some 45% stronger than its low in November 2000.

Our analysis makes it very clear that a much weaker EUR may help save
the EUR in the end. For one thing, a much weaker EUR would
significantly reduce the incentive of any country to exit. For example, a
20% depreciation of the EUR against the USD would reduce by nearly half
the loss of competitiveness of Italy to the US since the inception of
the EUR (Chart 6).

Our analysis above
suggests that the eurozone is now facing two paths – break up or accept a
much weaker EUR. To the extent that the first path is likely to be also
associated with a weaker EUR (at least in the transition), it seems
that further depreciation of the EUR is inevitable.

Source: BofAML

MUST READ!

Full document here – pdf

μέσω For Italy, It Is Game Theory Over | ZeroHedge.

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Egan Jones Triple Hooks Italy: Boots The Boot To CCC+ From B+, Watch Negative | ZeroHedge

Posted by satyrikon στο Ιουλίου 25, 2012

And another country falls to the Egan Who juggernaut.

Synopsis: Italy and its regional governments need to rollover approximately EUR183B in 2012 and EUR214B next year and is likely to experience increasing yields and restricted access without external intervention. Yields on the 10 year bonds are near 6.5%; rates have been rising despite prior ECB purchases. Future intervention by the ECB and IMF will provide some liquidity but might subordinate existing creditors. Italy cannot support all of its debt if the EU economy falters. Debt/GDP will continue to rise and the country will remain pressed. We are downgrading from » B+ » to » CCC+ » , with a neg. watch

Look for the «reputable» raters such to follow suit in downgrading Italy in 2-3 months.

μέσω Egan Jones Triple Hooks Italy: Boots The Boot To CCC+ From B+, Watch Negative | ZeroHedge.

Posted in ΕΠΙΚΑΙΡΟΤΗΤΑ | Με ετικέτα: , | 1 Comment »

Mike Krieger λέει να θυμόμαστε τα λόγια του Ιωσήφ Στάλιν-Mike Krieger Says To Remember The Words Of Joseph Stalin | ZeroHedge

Posted by satyrikon στο Ιουνίου 14, 2012

Θυμηθείτε τα λόγια του Ιωσήφ Στάλιν

Ο καθένας επιβάλλει το δικό του σύστημα όση και η δύναμη του στρατού του.

Οι ιδέες είναι πιο ισχυρές από τα όπλα. Εμείς δεν θα αφήσουμε τους εχθρούς μας να έχουν όπλα, γιατί θα πρέπει να τους αφήσουμε να έχουν ιδέες.  

 Είναι αρκετό οι λαοί να γνωρίζουν οτι υπάρχουν εκλογές. Οι άνθρωποι που ψηφίζουν δεν αποφασίζουν τίποτε. Οι άνθρωποι που μετρούν τις ψήφους αποφασίζουν τα πάντα.

– Όλα αυτά τα αποσπάσματα είναι του Ιωσήφ Στάλιν.

Submitted by Mike Krieger of Libertyblitzkrieg

Remember The Words Of Joseph Stalin

 

Everyone imposes his own system as far as his army can reach.

Ideas are more powerful than guns. We would not let our enemies have guns, why should we let them have ideas. 

 

It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything.

– All Quotes by Joseph Stalin

 

Know Your Enemy

I recall wanting to read Mein Kampf as a young kid, although to this day I have only read excerpts.  I wanted to know what made this guy tick, what his thoughts were.  How could someone justify such horrific actions. As I have progressed into adulthood I have only become more and more convinced that books written by psychopath killer dictators should be required reading for every single human being on the planet.  In a similar vein, I remember hearing the argument back in high school that people should not read Machiavelli’s The Prince.  The argument was that if people read a manual on devious thoughts, and the application of ruthless behavior to achieve one’s selfish ends, that it would permeate society and lead us all into a darker place.  As soon as I heard this, of course, the first thing I did was head to the book store to buy it.  I recall my reaction to the treatise vividly.

I remember thinking how absolutely asinine the argument for shielding this book from society really was.  The conclusion I came to was that anyone with a truly sick, sociopathic mind wouldn’t learn anything from this book.  Their minds already intuitively thought that way.  Those that could be persuaded to think in that manner as a result of reading such a book were just dangerous sheeple that would sell their souls to work with a sick system.  They would end up doing so anyway.  Those people don’t scare me so much as the naturally devious mind does.  They can be easily outmaneuvered by smarter men and women.  If I am correct, then the worst possible thing we can do as a society is to pretend that this extremely small percentage of the population doesn’t exist or pose a threat to us in our everyday lives (please read my related article here).  I think that most of the population of the United States (aka Disneyland) has been duped into thinking that somehow the Hitler or Stalin personalities of the world no longer exist!  That somehow they just disappeared from the earth after World War 2, or more importantly, if they exist they are in some remote African country or Middle Eastern nation that just conveniently happens to have oil!

If Americans can indeed be convinced that such people roam the streets of the US of A then they are likely the one-off serial killer we hear about every now and again, or some homeless person that ODs on bath salts and eats some other homeless persons face on the side of a highway in Miami.  The big secret is that the smart, devious and ambitious minds do not lock middle aged women in basements; they go into politics.  More specifically, they pursue power wherever it can be had.  This is why I refer to Washington D.C. as a the world’s largest cesspool.  I think at this very moment there aren’t many places on this earth with a higher concentration per capita of twisted, immoral, inhumane creatures that somehow still refer to themselves as human beings.

So in this context, the awakening that is happening across much of my nation is really just the citizenry realizing what most of the world already knows all too well.  The Siren’s song of Disney has been strong but its effect is wearing off.  You can’t defeat your enemy unless you know your enemy.

 

Remember the Words of Joseph Stalin

As we head into the Greek election this weekend, I thought it would be appropriate to recall the words of Joseph Stalin.  Particularly his observation about elections and vote counting.  I find it hilarious that the Greek authorities suspended polling heading into the election.  I mean, that tells you everything you need to know.  This is exactly what you would do if you were thinking about rigging the results.  The worst thing that could happen would be to have Syriza soaring in the polls into the main event.  If that was the case, it would be much more difficult to arrange a more “favorable” outcome.  This way they can just claim “wow, unexpectedly the bankster parties won!”  I’m not predicting that will be the outcome, I’m just saying the suspension of polling was a huge red flag.  Here is the chart of the last polling results and some excellent commentary.  Greece is extremely important as it is a key testing ground for TPTB.  Everything that is happening in Greece will be attempted elsewhere if they can get away with it there.  This gives the country a great deal of significance.  That said, even if Greece is lost there is no way TPTB can win this thing.  It is taking them more than two years to roll up tiny Greece.  Even if they succeed, do you think Spain and Italy will go so easily.  Then what about the U.S. with hundreds of millions of guns everywhere?  There is no chance.  The globalist agenda is already dead in the water; however, as we can see it doesn’t stop them from continuing to try.

What TPTB do not appreciate are the lessons we are all learning from Greece.  We must learn many more lessons though.  We must admit to ourselves that there are truly evil geniuses out there, and in most cases these characters have taken control of the power structure (corporations, politics and factions of the military in most of the nations we reside in).  The necessary action is not for good people to bury their heads in the sand and pretend that such people do not exist.  We must get inside their minds.  We must acknowledge and accept their presence as well as their power and then work tirelessly to relieve them of it.  As Irish statesmen, author and philosopher Edmund Burke so eloquently stated: “All that’s necessary for the forces of evil to win in the world is for enough good men to do nothing.” Let’s just do it already.

 

Mike Krieger Says To Remember The Words Of Joseph Stalin | ZeroHedge.

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The Definitive Lesson In «New Normal» European Geography | ZeroHedge

Posted by satyrikon στο Ιουνίου 14, 2012

For your definitive documented «X is not Y» atlasing needs.

1. “Spain is not Greece.”

Elena Salgado, Spanish Finance minister, Feb. 2010

2. “Portugal is not Greece.”

The Economist, 22nd April 2010.

3. “Ireland is not in ‘Greek Territory.’”

Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan.

4. “Greece is not Ireland.”

George Papaconstantinou, Greek Finance minister, 8th November, 2010.

5. “Spain is neither Ireland nor Portugal.”

Elena Salgado, Spanish Finance minister, 16 November 2010.

6. “Neither Spain nor Portugal is Ireland.”

Angel Gurria, Secretary-general OECD, 18th November, 2010.

7. «Spain is not Uganda»

Rajoy to Guindos… Last weekend!

8. «Italy is not Spain»

Ed Parker, Fitch MD, 12 June 201

via The Definitive Lesson In «New Normal» European Geography | ZeroHedge.

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ΚΟΜΜΑΤΑ ΠΟΥ ΘΕΛΟΥΝ ΤΗΝ ΧΩΡΑ ΤΟΥΣ ΕΞΩ ΑΠΟ ΤΗΝ ΕΥΡΩΠΗ

Posted by satyrikon στο Ιουνίου 12, 2012

https://i0.wp.com/www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/06/20120612_EU.png

Many countries have seen the emergence of nationalist parties but only France, Italy, and Greece have parties advocating EMU withdrawal (for now).

Euro-Fatigue Storm Rising

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Spain IS Greece After All: Here Are The Main Outstanding Items Following The Spanish Bailout

Posted by satyrikon στο Ιουνίου 9, 2012

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/09/2012

After two years of denials, we finally have the right answer: Spain IS Greece. Only much bigger. So now that the European bailout has moved from Greece, Ireland and Portugal on to the big one, Spain, here are the key outstanding questions.

1. Where will the money come from?

De Guindos, Schauble and the Eurogroup, all announced that the sole source of cash would be the ESM and/or the EFSF. The problem with this is that the ESM has yet to be ratified by Germany, whose parliament said previously it is sternly against allowing the ESM to fund a direct bank bailout, something which just happened. Thus, the successful German ESM ratification vote, whenever it comes, and which previously was taken for granted, now appears to be far more questionable.

Διαβάστε τη συνέχεια του άρθρου »

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Monti Goes M.A.D.; Sees «Permanent Risk Of Contagion In Euro-Zone» | ZeroHedge

Posted by satyrikon στο Ιουνίου 8, 2012

We can only assume that the technocrat-in-chief of Italy, Mario Monti, has read the second chapter of ‘how to be a European leader’ as he switches from Juncker’s «When it’s bad, you have to lie» mantra to «Maybe the real truth will scare ’em into it» as he pushes the spending of other people’s money and a growth agenda (which of course will solve all the insolvency problems). As Bloomberg reports, the blackmail negotiations threats continue:

*MONTI SAYS THERE IS PERMANENT RISK OF CONTAGION IN EURO ZONE

*MONTI SAYS SPAIN BEING DEALT WITH PROMPTLY, ADEQUATELY

*MONTI SAYS EU NEEDS GROWTH POLICIES QUICKLY TO STOP CONTAGION

*MONTI SAYS MARKETS DEMANDING EUROPEAN GROWTH

Perhaps he just noticed the underperformance of Italian bonds the last day or two and just how this will rapidly spill back into his back-yard.

via Monti Goes M.A.D.; Sees «Permanent Risk Of Contagion In Euro-Zone» | ZeroHedge.

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ZeroHedge | On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

Posted by satyrikon στο Ιουνίου 3, 2012

Confused by the latest developments, headlines, stories, counterstories, denials, counterdenials and rumors, but mostly prayers out of Europe? Here is your one stop shop of everything that has transpired in the Eurocrisis most recently.

via ZeroHedge | On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.

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ΟΙ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΙΟΙ ΦΟΙΤΗΤΕΣ ΑΓΩΝΙΖΟΝΤΑΙ ΕΝΑΝΤΙΑ ΣΤΗΝ ΧΟΥΝΤΑ ΤΩΝ ΤΡΑΠΕΖΙΤΩΝ ΚΑΙ ΤΩΝ ΚΥΒΕΡΝΗΣΕΩΝ ΓΙΑ ΤΙΣ ΠΕΡΙΚΟΠΕΣ ΣΤΗΝ ΠΑΙΔΕΙΑ ΚΑΙ ΤΗΝ ΑΥΞΗΣΗ ΤΩΝ ΔΙΔΑΚΤΡΩΝ-ΦΩΤΟΓΡΑΦΙΕΣ

Posted by satyrikon στο Δεκέμβριος 1, 2010

European Students Fight Governments and Banks

Photos
[Image]A student, wearing a mask, reading: ‘I was cut,’ protests in front of the Italian Lower House in Rome on November 25, 2010. Students from several cities protest against the government’s proposed reform of the university system and budget cuts that Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s government has engaged to carry out by 2013. Students are outraged over cuts of around nine billion euros (12 billion US dollars) and 130,000 jobs in the education system. Getty [Image]Students demonstrate in Buchanan Street on November 24, 2010 in Glasgow, Scotland. Protests are taking place across the UK over higher tuition fees and the recent government budget cuts. A student march earlier in the month saw violent scenes as protestors occupied the Conservative Party headquarters in London. Getty Διαβάστε τη συνέχεια του άρθρου »

Posted in Global Economy, Ε.Ε., ΕΠΙΚΑΙΡΟΤΗΤΑ, ΗΠΑ, ΚΑΤΑΝΑΛΩΤΗΣ, ΠΛΗΡΟΦΟΡΙΕΣ, ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΟΙ, ΤΡΑΠΕΖΙΚΟ ΚΑΡΤΕΛ, ΤΡΑΠΕΖΙΤΗΣ, ΧΡΕΗ, επικαιρότητα, NWO, one world government, Rothschilds, Uncategorized | Με ετικέτα: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

ΠΡΟΒΛΕΨΕΙΣ ΓΙΑ ΤΟ 2009 ΑΠΟ ΤΟΝ STANISLAV MISHIN

Posted by satyrikon στο Ιανουαρίου 9, 2009

ΟΠΩΣ ΔΗΜΟΣΙΕΥΤΗΚΑΝ ΣΤΟ ΜΠΛΟΓΚ MAT RODINA

ΑΦΟΡΑ ΣΤΙΣ ΠΑΡΑΚΑΤΩ ΧΩΡΕΣ:

ΡΩΣΙΑ

ΑΜΕΡΙΚΗ

ΜΕΞΙΚΟ

ΝΟΤΙΑ ΑΜΕΡΙΚΗ

ΗΝΩΜΕΝΟ ΒΑΣΙΛΕΙΟ

ΙΣΠΑΝΙΑ

ΓΑΛΛΙΑ

ΙΤΑΛΙΑ

ΓΕΡΜΑΝΙΑ

ΠΟΛΩΝΙΑ

ΧΩΡΕΣ ΤΗΣ ΒΑΛΤΙΚΗΣ

ΒΑΛΚΑΝΙΑ

For the Balkans as general, look for war in 2009. It will start with increased violence against the EU and NATO in Kosovo from the drug cartels who run the failed statelete. With NATO on the retreat in Afghanistan, split over Russia, Serbia will finally take the move to re annex Kosovo and drive the KLA and Albanian mafia out of the region. This will be sparked by KLA Islamics starting more terror in southern Serbia and the threat against the Serb minority there.

The domino effect will be fast and furious.

Once NATO steps aside and does nothing to loose yet more troops to the Serb army, the signal will be clear. The KLA will flee into Greece, Makedonia and Albania. In Albania, they will destabilize the already weak government and the state, by the end of the year will be in the process of collapsing. Makedonia will find itself once more mired in a civil war. This time, though, a weak US will not be able to stop Makedonia’s neighbors from arming the Orthodox Christian state against the Islamic-Narco insurgency.

Greece will also find itself with an active Albanian insurgency, on a much higher level than the few violent incidents scattered so far. In the end, Greece will eject its Albanian workers and may even be drawn actively into the collapsing Albania, if for no other reason than to protect the 25% Orthodox Albanian minority.

In Bosnia, Srpska Republic, using the Kosovo standard, will declare independence and ask to return to Serbia’s borders. This will of course reignite the Bosnian three way civil war, for which all three sides are ready. NATO will attempt to stop the deterioration but after several violent incidents, member nations will withdraw their troops or remask them as UN observers.

Croatia and Serbia will meet once more on the battle field of Europe as Bosnia is equally flooded by a new wave of Arab and Pakistani Jihadists.

ΤΟΥΡΚΙΑ

ΟΥΚΡΑΝΙΑ

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