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Posts Tagged ‘Morgan Stanley’

Goldman Downgrades Morgan Stanley From Conviction Buy To Netural, Warns On Counterparty Risk | ZeroHedge

Posted by satyrikon στο 26 Ιουνίου, 2012

GS just did what it does best: pulled the rug from under its most troubled peer: «We are downgrading MS to Neutral and removing shares from the America’s Conviction List. Since being added to the Americas Conviction List on January 29, 2012, MS shares are down 27% vs. flat for the S&P 500. Over the past 12 months, MS shares are down 39% vs. the S&P 500 up 4%. When we added shares to the Conviction List, we noted that MS had addressed a number of legacy issues including (1) the conversion of the MUFG preferred stock to common to bolster common equity capital ratios, (2) elimination of the CIC preferred dividend, (3) removal of the MBIA relationship//hedge overhang, (4) write-down of legacy real estate assets, (5) elimination of non-core asset management businesses, and (6) near-completion of the  integration of Smith Barney and Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. While that all still holds true today and should be beneficial towards long-term “normalized” returns, we believe several capital market overhangs will reduce out-year earnings visibility and cap near-term outperformance. While too soon to tell how counterparties will react to a new capital market ratings distribution post-Moody’s, this cycle has proven that banks with the largest increase in funding spreads have generally lost fixed income trading market share. In addition, with a number of global macro uncertainties likely to weigh on capital markets activity for the foreseeable future, MS has outsized exposure here as well.» Capitalism at its best: kick ’em while they’re down.

Goldman summary:

Goldman Downgrades Morgan Stanley From Conviction Buy To Netural, Warns On Counterparty Risk | ZeroHedge.

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Citi’s Buiter: Greece will be forced out of the euro regardless of who wins the Sunday elections | ZeroHedge

Posted by satyrikon στο 16 Ιουνίου, 2012

New Democracy. Syriza. Doesn’t matter. According to Citi’s senior political analyst Tina Fordham, chief economist Willem Buiter, and global economist Ebrahim Rahbari, «any new Greek government, regardless of its composition, will struggle with implementation challenges related to the imposition of further austerity measures demanded by the Troika in exchange for further assistance,» and as a result, they «consider it likely that a new troika deal would ultimately fall apart and lead to Grexit.»

Citi notes that there is growing sense among European leaders that «promotion of economic growth can no longer be subordinated completely, even in fiscally unsustainable euro area member states, to the requirements of fiscal austerity,» but no one has any idea what that means.

This seems to be the current thinking, according to Citi:

 
 

The only operational, practical consensus on growth is that austerity policies should not be unnecessarily pro-cyclical. If a deficit target is overshot because of bad luck (economic activity and government revenues are weaker than expected despite full adherence to all conditionality) rather than bad faith (there has been a failure to implement agreed measures or policies), the shortfall will not have to be made up immediately – in the original time frame. More time will be given to achieve the original objectives without the need for deeper and faster austerity than originally envisaged. Bad faith (non-compliance) will, for incentive-compatibility or moral hazard reasons, continue to be punished with demand for enhanced and faster austerity.

Warning. Also, reminder: «And of course, reduced austerity does not mean no austerity, let alone the reversal of austerity…fiscal policy will remain contractionary overall – just less contractionary.»

Citi’s doesn’t think Greece is able to handle any more austerity, and its rapidly deteriorating fiscal condition is hastening a day of reckoning. On how and when Greek membership in the euro ends:

 
 

A possible trigger would be the determination by the IMF following the first or second assessment, that it cannot disburse its next installment due under the current programme because the Greek programme is not fully funded for 12 months after the assessment. In that case some of the smaller core euro area member states that have made their contributions to the Greek EFSF programme conditional on the IMF disbursing would probably drop out too. The Greek sovereign would then be forced to default. Then the ECB would stop funding the Greek banks through the Eurosystem and through the Greek ELA. With neither the Greek sovereign nor the Greek banks having access to the lender of last resort, we believe Greece would probably leave the eurozone, as some liquidity through the issuance of New Drachma is better than no liquidity.

The Citi team says that «more generally, we are concerned at the prospect of formerly wealthy countries becoming ‘new, critical fragile states.'» This is where things get really messy. They don’t think the ECB, EU, et al. will even let Greece go financially when things get really bad as described above. More like this:

 
 

In order to prevent such a scenario, we believe that even if “Grexit” were to occur, Greece would stay in the European Union and receive some form of Troika or other external assistance, most likely through the Balance of Payments facility run by the European Commission and the IMF for non-euro area EU member states. Since 2008, Latvia, Hungary and Romania have been under such programmes. Support from the EIB, and from Structural and Cohesion funds would also be likely to be forthcoming. We would also expect the ECB to continue to support the Bank of Greece after a Grexit. After all, the Greek central bank would exit the Eurosystem with considerable euro-denominated debt to the Eurosystem (this could be its Target2 net debit balance – something around €100bn, or its share of the total losses suffered by the Eurosystem as a result of Greek exit, however this would be established, net of the capital it has paid into the ECB, which would, in principle, be refundable on exit).

And the darkness is spreading through Europe. The «seeds of dystopia» are being planted:

 
 

Throughout the euro area periphery, and indeed beyond it in the ‘soft core’ of the euro area, the potential for the so-called “seeds of dystopia” referred to in the WEF Global Risks report remains a key long-term risk to European political stability and competitiveness, as youth unemployment rises and the social contract between states and citizens erodes. The burdens of this adjustment fall disproportionately on young people, as evidenced in youth unemployment exceeding 50% in Greece and Spain and unacceptably high everywhere in the periphery and the euro area at large. We continue to take the view that political change in Europe will continue to take place in the ballot box, but note the rising risk of frequent changes in government, street violence and other upheaval in a more fraught environment undermining both political and social consensus when it is most needed. However, unlike in the Middle East and North Africa, European countries do not have an age pyramid, but rather an inverted one, making it less likely that inter-generational conflict will propel rapid change in political outcomes towards more growth and employment-friendly policies.

 

Citi’s Buiter: Greece will be forced out of the euro regardless of who wins the Sunday elections | ZeroHedge.

Posted in ΕΠΙΚΑΙΡΟΤΗΤΑ | Με ετικέτα: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Η WALL STREET ΠΙΣΩ ΑΠΟ ΤΗΝ ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΗ ΚΡΙΣΗ ΤΗΣ ΕΛΛΑΔΑΣ

Posted by satyrikon στο 27 Μαρτίου, 2010

William Engdahl, author of «Full Spectrum Dominance», says the roots of the euro’s crisis lie in the US.

“Wall Street is really behind this whole Greek crisis from the beginning. Moody’s Rating Service – most people are unaware of this, but the world’s premier credit rating service that made the credit downgrade of Greece at the end of last year, it started this whole crisis,” William Engdahl said.

“The guards of money – Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley – what they want with this situation with Greece is to have a rolling crisis in ‘euro land’ that takes the focus away from the weakness of the dollar,” he added.

Posted in Ε.Ε., ΗΠΑ, ΚΑΤΑΝΑΛΩΤΗΣ, ΠΛΗΡΟΦΟΡΙΕΣ, ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΟΙ, ΤΡΑΠΕΖΙΚΟ ΚΑΡΤΕΛ, ΤΡΑΠΕΖΙΤΗΣ, NWO, Rothschilds, Soros George | Με ετικέτα: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Ο ΤΡΙΓΩΝΙΣΜΟΣ ΤΟΥ ΟΡΓΑΝΙΣΜΟΥ ΤΗΛΕΠΙΚΟΙΝΩΝΙΩΝ ΕΛΛΑΔΑΣ

Posted by satyrikon στο 6 Ιουνίου, 2008

Ο Ο.Τ.Ε. ΕΠΩΛΗΘΗ. ΤΟ MANAGEMENT ΤΟΥ Ο.Τ.Ε. ΕΠΩΛΗΘΗ.

ΝΑΙ ΑΛΛΑ ΠΟΙΟΣ ΤΑ ΑΓΟΡΑΣΕ?

 ΠΩΣ ?

ΚΑΙ ΓΙΑΤΙ?

ΕΡΩΤΗΜΑΤΑ ΠΟΥ ΒΑΖΕΙ Ο ΚΑΘΕ ΕΛΛΗΝΑΣ ΑΥΘΟΡΜΗΤΑ.

Ο ΟΤΕ ΕΠΩΛΗΘΗ ΣΤΗΝ Deutsche Telekom ΤΗΣ ΟΠΟΙΑΣ ΠΡΟΕΔΡΟΣ ΕΙΝΑΙ Ο Klaus Zumwinkel.

Η ΕΙΚΟΝΑ ΤΟΥ Klaus Zumwinkel

Klaus Zumwinkel

Klaus Zumwinkel current relationships:

 

 

ΠΑΡΕΝΘΕΣΗ: Ο Klaus Zumwinkel ΑΠΟΣΥΡΕΤΑΙ ΠΛΕΟΝ ΑΠΟ ΤΙΣ ΕΠΙΧΕΙΡΗΣΕΙΣ ΤΗΣ Deutsche Telekom ΚΑΙ ΤΗΣ Morgan Stanley

 

 

 

 «Λαμβάνοντας υπ’οψην και τις απειλές της Morgan Stanley, προεκλογικά, με την ωμή παρέμβαση της
που χαρακτήριζαν τις εκτιμήσεις της για τις μετοχές (ΟΤΕ-ΔΕΗ).
(Πρόβλεψη για άνοδο της μετοχής του ΟΤΕ, κατά 25% σε νίκη της Ν.Δ και πτώση 15% σε νίκη του ΠΑΣΟΚ. Σημειώνουμε οτι κατέχει 1,7% των μετοχών του ΟΤΕ.
ΟΙ MORGAN STNANLEY, UBS, MERRIL LYNCH, JP MORGAN, κατέχουν μετοχές, αξίας, 73 δις ευρώ. Το ποσόν ξεπερνά το 1/3 του ΑΕΠ της χώρας μας.)
Προκύπτει εύλογα και απροκάλυπτα το «ενδιαφέρον» της για την τύχη της κυβέρνησης.
Ανάδοχος της πώλησης μτχ 10% του ΟΤΕ, 16,7% του ΟΠΑΠ, 20% του Τ.Τ. Είναι σύμβουλος της COSMOTE, και της ΕΘΝΙΚΗΣ ΤΡΑΠΕΖΑΣ.
Αντίστοιχες δουλειές με το Δημόσιο έχουν JP MORGAN, CITIGROYP, MERRIL LYNCH .
Επίσης εξ ίσου σοβαρά πρέπει να ληφθεί υπόψην ότι οι Σαουδική Αραβία, Ηνωμ.Αραβ.Εμιράτα, Κουβέιτ, Σιγκαπούρη κατέχουν απο 0,4% έως 0,7% του μετοχ. κεφαλαίου ή απο 2 έως 3,5
εκ μτχ του ΟΤΕ, ξεχωριστά κάθε μία.
Η MIG είναι η’αιχμή» του δόρατος και φέρεται ως μελλοντικός συνεργάτης τους.
«

Morgan Stanley wins France Telecom role.

Posted in Bilderberg, Μπιλντερμπέργκ, MIG, NWO, OTE, Trilateral Commission, Uncategorized | Με ετικέτα: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Σχόλια »

 
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