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Posts Tagged ‘Recession’

ΕΝΑ ΛΑΜΠΡΟ ΜΕΛΛΟΝ ΓΙΑ ΤΟΥΣ ΕΛΛΗΝΕΣ:»ΤΩΡΑ ΚΑΘΑΡΙΖΩ ΤΑ ΣΚΑΤΑ ΤΩΝ ΣΟΥΗΔΩΝ»-A Bright Future For Greeks:»Now I Clean Swedish Shit» | ZeroHedge

Posted by satyrikon στο Σεπτεμβρίου 7, 2012

One look at the short squeeze in the EURUSD, coupled with the endless jawboning out of Europe, and one may be left with the faulty impression that Europe has been magically fixed and that Greece couldn’t be more delighted to remain in the Eurozone. One would be wrong. This is what is really going on in Europe:

As a pharmaceutical salesman in Greece for 17 years, Tilemachos Karachalios wore a suit, drove a company car and had an expense account. He now mops schools in Sweden, forced from his home by Greece’s economic crisis.

“It was a very good job,” said Karachalios, 40, of his former life. “Now I clean Swedish s—.”

That more or less explains everything one needs to know about the «fixing» of Europe.

Of course, those who saw our chart from yesterday which showed Greek unemployment rising by 1% in one month to a record 24.4% will hardly find this surprising.

For all those others who need a personal anecdote to grasp just how fixed Europe is, we hand it off to Bloomberg.

Karachalios, who left behind his 6-year-old daughter to be raised by his parents, is one of thousands fleeing Greece’s record 24 percent unemployment and austerity measures that threaten to undermine growth. The number of Greeks seeking permission to settle in Sweden, where there are more jobs and a stable economy, almost doubled to 1,093 last year from 2010, and is on pace to increase again this year.

“I’m trying to survive,” Karachalios said in an interview in Stockholm. “It’s difficult here, very difficult. I would prefer to stay in Greece. But we don’t have jobs.”

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Posted in ΕΠΙΚΑΙΡΟΤΗΤΑ, ΤΡΑΠΕΖΙΚΟ ΚΑΡΤΕΛ, ΤΡΑΠΕΖΙΤΗΣ, επικαιρότητα | Με ετικέτα: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Greece — What Matters And What Does Not | ZeroHedge

Posted by satyrikon στο Ιουνίου 16, 2012

From Mark Grant, author of Out of the Box

Greece—What matters and What does Not

The bond market is heading East while the equity markets heads West because they have two totally different focuses at present. I have seen this often enough in my almost four decades on Wall Street and I am always amused when this differentiation takes place. It is really just a reaction to what either market is staring at that causes this phenomenon to take place and, eventually, one market proves to be correct while the other gallops along to catch up. The stock markets seem buoyed by the possibility of the more EU friendly government to win this Sunday’s election and they are taking comfort in the hope for support of the world’s major central banks and the possibility of more easing; a new or redefined QE3. The fixed income people are concentrating on the possibility of a systemic financial shock, the recession in Europe that will affect the United States and the plight of the European banks. In my experience the bond markets generally get it right and get there first and I expect nothing different this time.

Let us calmly consider the facts as we can ferret them out and change our focus to reality and not what we are spoon fed by the Europeans. Greece has a total debt of about $1.3 trillion. This is composed of their sovereign debt, which Europe counts, and then their $90 billion in derivatives, their Federally guaranteed regional debt, their sovereign guaranteed bank and corporate debt, their obligations to the EU and finally their loans at the other central banks. It is just simple addition and not my opinion; I am just counting all of the liabilities while Europe does not. Then if you take their GDP and divide it by their total debt you get a debt to GDP ratio of around 453%. You may claim, and somewhat correctly, there is value in some of their assets which would be an off-set in case of actual default but the problem here is that they are a sovereign nation so how one would lay claim to any Greeks assets would be quite problematical.

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Fitch Follows S&P, Slashes Spain By 3 Notches To BBB, Only Moody Is Left – Step 3 Collateral Downgrade Imminent | ZeroHedge

Posted by satyrikon στο Ιουνίου 7, 2012

 

Fitch Follows S&P, Slashes Spain By 3 Notches To BBB, Only Moody Is Left – Step 3 Collateral Downgrade Imminent

First it Egan-Jones (of course). Then S&P. Now Fitch (which sees the Spanish bank recap burden between €60 and a massive €100 billion!)joins the downgrade party of rating agencies that have Spain at a sub-A rating. Only Moody’s is left. What happens when Moody’s also cuts Spain to BBB or less? Bad things: as we explained on April 30, when everyone has Spain at BBB or less…

If all agencies downgrade Spain to BBB+ or below, the ECB could increase haircuts by 5% on SPGBs

The key aspect in terms of the Spanish downgrade(s) is the ECB’s LTRO. If all three rating agencies move Spain to BBB+ or below then under the ECB’s current framework it moves into the Step 3 collateral bucket which requires an additional 5% haircut across the maturities. In classifying its risk management buckets, the ECB uses the highest of the ratings to determine an asset’s position (unlike the sovereign benchmark indices which use the lowest rating, in general). Fitch and Moodys currently rate Spain at A and A3 respectively, with both having a negative outlook in place leaving only a small downgrade margin before Spain migrates to the lower ECB bucket.

Italy’s position is marginally more precarious in that it shares Spain’s A3 rating from Moody’s but is rated lower at A- by Fitch, and is similarly outlook negative from both agencies. One would hope ECB pragmatism would prevail and move to be more accommodative on its collateral haircut rules on sovereign debt.

The weakness of the eurozone’s growth outlook is undermining the efforts of many sovereigns to rein in budget deficits, thereby highlighting the self-defeating nature of the fiscal compact as currently defined. Including the political impact, this has potential to lead to further downgrades

via Fitch Follows S&P, Slashes Spain By 3 Notches To BBB, Only Moody Is Left – Step 3 Collateral Downgrade Imminent | ZeroHedge.

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ZeroHedge | On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

Posted by satyrikon στο Ιουνίου 3, 2012

Confused by the latest developments, headlines, stories, counterstories, denials, counterdenials and rumors, but mostly prayers out of Europe? Here is your one stop shop of everything that has transpired in the Eurocrisis most recently.

via ZeroHedge | On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.

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