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Posts Tagged ‘sovereign debt’

Greece — What Matters And What Does Not | ZeroHedge

Posted by satyrikon στο Ιουνίου 16, 2012

From Mark Grant, author of Out of the Box

Greece—What matters and What does Not

The bond market is heading East while the equity markets heads West because they have two totally different focuses at present. I have seen this often enough in my almost four decades on Wall Street and I am always amused when this differentiation takes place. It is really just a reaction to what either market is staring at that causes this phenomenon to take place and, eventually, one market proves to be correct while the other gallops along to catch up. The stock markets seem buoyed by the possibility of the more EU friendly government to win this Sunday’s election and they are taking comfort in the hope for support of the world’s major central banks and the possibility of more easing; a new or redefined QE3. The fixed income people are concentrating on the possibility of a systemic financial shock, the recession in Europe that will affect the United States and the plight of the European banks. In my experience the bond markets generally get it right and get there first and I expect nothing different this time.

Let us calmly consider the facts as we can ferret them out and change our focus to reality and not what we are spoon fed by the Europeans. Greece has a total debt of about $1.3 trillion. This is composed of their sovereign debt, which Europe counts, and then their $90 billion in derivatives, their Federally guaranteed regional debt, their sovereign guaranteed bank and corporate debt, their obligations to the EU and finally their loans at the other central banks. It is just simple addition and not my opinion; I am just counting all of the liabilities while Europe does not. Then if you take their GDP and divide it by their total debt you get a debt to GDP ratio of around 453%. You may claim, and somewhat correctly, there is value in some of their assets which would be an off-set in case of actual default but the problem here is that they are a sovereign nation so how one would lay claim to any Greeks assets would be quite problematical.

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Just What Is Mario Draghi Hiding? ECB Declines To Respond To Bloomberg FOIA Request On Greek-Goldman Swaps | ZeroHedge

Posted by satyrikon στο Ιουνίου 14, 2012

Back in February 2010, in the aftermath of the discovery that none other than Goldman Sachs had facilitated for nearly a decade the masking of the true magnitude of non-Maastricht conforming Greek debt, Zero Hedge first identified the prospectus for a Goldman underwritten swap agreement securitization titled Titlos PLC. We titled the analysis «Is Titlos PLC The Downgrade Catalyst Trigger Which Will Destroy Greece?» because for all intents and purposes it was: at that time a rating agency downgrade of the country would lead to a chain of events which would make billions in assets ineligible for ECB collateral, forcing a massive margin call on the National Bank of Greece, which likely would have precipitated a Greek default there and then.

In retrospect, considering the two years of pain that Greece has already suffered, this may have been the better option as the country would have taken its bitter medicine, and become a second Iceland case study by now, growing at a brisk pace, unencumbered by debt, free from the clutches of the Euro, instead of having its economy collapse by nearly 10% every year without any resolution in sight.

But that is irrelevant for the time being: what is relevant is Titlos itself, and what Bloomberg did after we posted the analysis. It turns out that following in the footsteps of Mark Pittman, Bloomberg sued the ECB under Freedom of Information rules requesting «access to two internal papers drafted for the central bank’s six-member Executive Board. They show how Greece used swaps to hide its borrowings, according to a March 3, 2010, note attached to the papers and obtained by Bloomberg News. The first document is entitled “The impact on government deficit and debt from off-market swaps: the Greek case.” The second reviews Titlos Plc, a securitization that allowed National Bank of Greece SA, the country’s biggest lender, to exchange swaps on Greek government debt for funding from the ECB, the Executive Board said in the cover note. The ECB’s response: «The European Central Bank said it can’t release files showing how Greece may have used derivatives to hide its borrowings because disclosure could still inflame the crisis threatening the future of the single currency.»

Maybe.

But what is far more likely is that the reason why the ECB, headed by none other than former Goldmanite Mario Draghi, is desperate to keep these documents secret is for another reason. A very simple reason:

 
 

Mario Draghi – 2002-2005:  Vice Chairman and Managing Director at Goldman Sachs International

In other words, Draghi was a key executive at Goldman at precisely the time when none other than Goldman Sachs was hired to create and facilitate the active hiding of the true extent of the Greek debt problem.

In yet other words: could it be that none other than the head of the European Central Bank is refusing to cooperate with a Bloomberg FOIA, something even the US Federal Reserve ultimately succumbed to which led the revelation that the Fed had handed out trillions in secret loans to banks all around the world  – and that includes tens of billions in under the table loans to JPM, contrary to Dimon’s defense that he did not need the TARP money in Senate yesterday: he did, and much more, but since when is perjury a crime before a kangaroo court of bought politicians:

But this is not about JPM for once. Let’s go back to that infernal mollusc which everyone loved to hate in all of 2009 and 2010 until JP Morgan became the world’s Fed-backstopped, prop trading pinata, and the response that the ECB did provide to Bloomberg as a reason for not handing out the required information:

 
 

Disclosing the files when Bloomberg News first sought them in 2010 would have “fueled negative perceptions about Greece’s ability to honor its debt,” ECB lawyer Marta Lopez Torres said at a hearing of the European Union’s General Court in Luxembourg today. “It’s the same now with Spain” which “isn’t able to borrow money,” she said. “Markets are reacting in very volatile ways. It’s affecting the euro economy.”

In other words from Mutual Assured Destruction as a means to push through policy propaganda, M.A.D. is now the only option for heads of central banks from being exposed to the world as the very same people who enabled the current financial collapse in the first place?

Now we see…

More from Bloomberg, which explains the reasoning for demanding access to the two abovementioned docs:

 
 

These documents “played a role” in shaping policy and “highlighted there were issues” when the ECB undertook a review of its eligibility criteria for collateral in its funding operations, the ECB lawyer told the court.

 

The cornerstone of the ECB’s response to the crisis is to give banks as much money as they needed in return for collateral. In October 2010, the ECB changed the rules on the asset-backed securities it accepted and gave itself more discretionary power to reject collateral if necessary.

 

The public has a right to know how EU authorities may have allowed Greece to hide its deficit, which helped trigger Europe’s sovereign debt crisis,” said Matthew Winkler, editor- in-chief of Bloomberg News. “Greater transparency results in more accountability, and we seek this information to understand how this debt debacle unfolded in an effort to avoid repeating it.”

 

The Greek government didn’t originally disclose the swaps, designed to help it comply with the deficit and debt rules it agreed to meet when it joined the euro in 2001. The swaps allowed the country to increase borrowings by 5.3 billion euros, Eurostat, the EU’s statistics agency, said in November 2010.

 

In April 2009 — seven months before the Greek crisis erupted — ECB officials spotted “a swap operation in unusual terms,” according to the March 2010 document.

And back to Goldman, who in the 2001 onward period was the sole bank provider of shady currency swap transactions:

 
 

In the largest derivative transaction disclosed so far, Greece borrowed 2.8 billion euros from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in 2001 through a derivative that swapped dollar- and yen- denominated debt issued by the nation for euros using a historical exchange rate, a move that generated an implied reduction in total borrowings.

 

“The Greek authorities had never informed Eurostat about this complex issue, and no opinion on the accounting treatment had been requested,” Eurostat, the Luxembourg-based statistics agency, said in a statement. The watchdog had only “general” discussions with financial institutions over its debt and deficit guidelines when the swap was executed in 2001.

 

“It is possible that Goldman Sachs (GS) asked us for general clarifications,” Eurostat said, declining to elaborate further.

 

Spokesmen for Goldman Sachs in London couldn’t immediately comment after the hearing.

How about asking that other Goldman Sachs spokesman, Mario Dragi? Perhaps at the next ECB press conference journalists can finally grow a pair and start asking the really important questions instead of listening to the violins as the European titanic is steadily sinking?

 

Just What Is Mario Draghi Hiding? ECB Declines To Respond To Bloomberg FOIA Request On Greek-Goldman Swaps | ZeroHedge.

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Details Emerge About Spain’s Cramming Down «Bailout» Loan | ZeroHedge

Posted by satyrikon στο Ιουνίου 10, 2012

The biggest problem, as Greece learned, is that once the priming begins, and the various sovereign debt classes start becoming subordinated, it doesn’t end, until the PSI. At which point the crammed down debt gets impaired and receives 20 some cents on the dollar recoveries… at which point Grey Wolf will tell you it is the «no-brainer trade» of the year.

Keep a close eye on Spanish sovereign bonds at the moment when the bond market understands what just happened, and once the euphoria over the very short-term bailout of insolvent Spanish banks passes. Because a month from today another €100 billion will be required, then another €100, and so on.

At that point even the officially acknowledged Spanish debt/GDP will surpass 100%.

via Details Emerge About Spain’s Cramming Down «Bailout» Loan | ZeroHedge.

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Spain IS Greece After All: Here Are The Main Outstanding Items Following The Spanish Bailout

Posted by satyrikon στο Ιουνίου 9, 2012

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/09/2012

After two years of denials, we finally have the right answer: Spain IS Greece. Only much bigger. So now that the European bailout has moved from Greece, Ireland and Portugal on to the big one, Spain, here are the key outstanding questions.

1. Where will the money come from?

De Guindos, Schauble and the Eurogroup, all announced that the sole source of cash would be the ESM and/or the EFSF. The problem with this is that the ESM has yet to be ratified by Germany, whose parliament said previously it is sternly against allowing the ESM to fund a direct bank bailout, something which just happened. Thus, the successful German ESM ratification vote, whenever it comes, and which previously was taken for granted, now appears to be far more questionable.

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ZeroHedge | On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

Posted by satyrikon στο Ιουνίου 9, 2012

The wind picked up across the plains, the windmill began to turn and “The Ingenious Gentleman Don Quixote of La Mancha” rode out once more to do battle. The ever faithful Sancho Panza, not wishing to be left behind, was in attendance and the windmills were now the banks and the regional debt of the country. You see, the Troubadour, Mariano Rajoy, does not wish the country to take any responsibility. It is to be the banks, not to injure the pride of the nation, that are the culprits and the banks, run by the empanada consortium, who are to be blamed. The IMF has released a statement claiming the banks need about $46bn which is the typical posture of the IMF these days; underestimating liabilities and then finding that more money is needed later; which they already knew of course. “Under estimate the liabilities and over estimate the assets” is the mantra sung at the IMF these days at the morning prayers as their credibility is as certain as the stature of the giants fought by Don Quixote.

via ZeroHedge | On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.

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Fitch Follows S&P, Slashes Spain By 3 Notches To BBB, Only Moody Is Left – Step 3 Collateral Downgrade Imminent | ZeroHedge

Posted by satyrikon στο Ιουνίου 7, 2012

 

Fitch Follows S&P, Slashes Spain By 3 Notches To BBB, Only Moody Is Left – Step 3 Collateral Downgrade Imminent

First it Egan-Jones (of course). Then S&P. Now Fitch (which sees the Spanish bank recap burden between €60 and a massive €100 billion!)joins the downgrade party of rating agencies that have Spain at a sub-A rating. Only Moody’s is left. What happens when Moody’s also cuts Spain to BBB or less? Bad things: as we explained on April 30, when everyone has Spain at BBB or less…

If all agencies downgrade Spain to BBB+ or below, the ECB could increase haircuts by 5% on SPGBs

The key aspect in terms of the Spanish downgrade(s) is the ECB’s LTRO. If all three rating agencies move Spain to BBB+ or below then under the ECB’s current framework it moves into the Step 3 collateral bucket which requires an additional 5% haircut across the maturities. In classifying its risk management buckets, the ECB uses the highest of the ratings to determine an asset’s position (unlike the sovereign benchmark indices which use the lowest rating, in general). Fitch and Moodys currently rate Spain at A and A3 respectively, with both having a negative outlook in place leaving only a small downgrade margin before Spain migrates to the lower ECB bucket.

Italy’s position is marginally more precarious in that it shares Spain’s A3 rating from Moody’s but is rated lower at A- by Fitch, and is similarly outlook negative from both agencies. One would hope ECB pragmatism would prevail and move to be more accommodative on its collateral haircut rules on sovereign debt.

The weakness of the eurozone’s growth outlook is undermining the efforts of many sovereigns to rein in budget deficits, thereby highlighting the self-defeating nature of the fiscal compact as currently defined. Including the political impact, this has potential to lead to further downgrades

via Fitch Follows S&P, Slashes Spain By 3 Notches To BBB, Only Moody Is Left – Step 3 Collateral Downgrade Imminent | ZeroHedge.

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ΣΕΝΑΡΙΟ ΑΝΤΙΜΕΤΩΠΙΣΗΣ ΤΗΣ ΕΠΕΡΧΟΜΕΝΗΣ ΚΟΙΝΩΝΙΚΗΣ ΑΝΑΤΑΡΑΧΗΣ ΣΤΗΝ ΕΛΛΑΔΑ ΛΟΓΩ ΤΗΣ ΟΞΥΝΣΗΣ ΤΗΣ ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΗΣ ΚΡΙΣΗΣ.

Posted by satyrikon στο Απρίλιος 9, 2010


Στις 25 Δεκεμβρίου 2009

δημοσιεύτηκαν στο μπλόγκ του

Mat Rodina

προβλέψεις οικονομικές και πολιτικές για το έτος 2010.

Μεταξύ των χωρών που αναφέρονται βρίσκεται και το παρακάτω κείμενο που αφορά στην Ελλάδα

«Greece
Greece will be the first European nation to default on its sovereign debt.

Total economic collapse will follow and rioting will escalate past last year’s.

By mid summer, the government will be paralyzed and the military, backed by the Orthodox Church will seize power. Islamics will stage demonstrations that will turn bloody and there will be at least a few minor terrorist acts.

A full cleansing of the Islamics and Albanians will proceed throughout Greece.

Greek relations with Turkey will be on the edge of war.».

Όπως μπορεί κάποιος να παρατηρήσει με βάση τα τρέχοντα οικονομικά γεγονότα οι μέχρι στιγμής προβλέψεις του Mat Rodina αρχίζουν να λαμβάνουν σάρκα και οστά.

Εδώ δεν θα αναλύσουμε τα στοιχεία που δικαιώνουν αρχικά αυτές τις προβλέψεις,

αλλά θα αναπτύξουμε ένα σενάριο το οποίο κατά την γνώμη μας ενδέχεται να αναπτυχθεί στις προσεχείς μέρες.

Υπάρχει μετέωρη η απορία που πλανάται από την επαύριο της εσωτερικής νίκης του Α.Σαμαρά στην προεδρία της Νέας Δημοκρατίας.

Το ερώτημα είναι :Γιατί έχασε η Ντόρα Μπακογιάννη τις εκλογές για την προεδρία της Ν.Δ.?

Είναι γνωστοί οι δεσμοί της Ντόρας με τον αμερικανικό παράγοντα καθώς επίσης και οι αλλεπάλληλες παραστάσεις της στις συνόδους της Λέσχης Μπίλντερμπεργκ.

Αραγε οι προστάτες της άφησαν την Ντόρα απροστάτευτη?

Την εγκατέλειψαν στην τύχη της?

Οι απόψεις της για την Ελλάδα και τον ελληνικό λαό είναι πασίγνωστες.

Προσομοιάζουν με τις απόψεις του Γ.Α.Παπανδρέου.

Η Ντόρα δεν αφέθηκε στην τύχη της ούτε την εγκατάλειψαν οι προστάτες της.

Απλώς προορίζεται να χρησιμοποιηθεί εφεδρικά στην πρότελευταία πράξη της ελληνικής τραγωδίας.

Από την άλλη μεριά υπάρχει ο Ε.Βενιζέλος ο οποίος είναι και αυτός ο χαμένος της εσωτερικής αναμέτρησης για την προεδρία του ΠΑΣΟΚ.

Η ομάδα Βενιζέλου(όσοι εξακολουθούν να την στηρίζουν ακόμη) μετά από την ήττα της αναδιπλώθηκε και παραμένει  εν υπνώσει περιμένοντας την κατάλληλη ευκαιρία για δράση.

Είναι φανερό πλέον τοίς πάσι ότι η σημερινή κυβέρνηση του Γ.Α.Παπανδρέου ανήλθε στην εξουσία

(μετά την ευέλικτη αποχώρηση του Κ.Καραμανλή)

με κύριο στόχο την αποσάθρωση της Ελλάδας.

Όλα της τα νομοθετήματα-όσα ψηφίστηκαν και όσα πρόκειται να ψηφιστόυν-στοχεύουν ενάντια στον ελληνικό λαό.

Του αφαιρούν δικαιώματα, οικονομικά και πολιτικά.

Του αφαιρούν δικαιώματα που τα απέκτησε με αγώνες και αίμα στα χρόνια που πέρασαν.

Είναι ο ταξικός αντίπαλος.

Είναι η ηγετική ομάδα που πραξικοπηματικά ανήλθε στην εξουσία του πάλαι ποτέ Πανελλήνιου Σοσιαλιστικού Κινήματος της Διακήρυξης της 3ης του Σεπτέμβρη 1974.

Όμως πλέον τα πράγματα αρχίζουν να γίνονται δύσκολα για την κυβέρνηση του Γ.Α.Π.

Είναι ζήτημα χρόνου η συνειδητοποίηση του ελληνικού λαού.

Ο

Μάο Τσε Τούγκ

έγραφε εξιστορώντας την «Μεγάλη Πορεία»: Περνούσαμε από τα χωριά που κατείχαν οι «Μαύροι»(πολιτικός όρος που αναφέρεται στον αντίπαλο ΤσαγκαιΣεκ) και τα ελευθερώναμε.

Αμεσα εφαρμόζαμε την πολιτική μας-ουσιαστικά ,διανομή χωραφιών στους κατοίκους-και την άλλη μέρα φεύγαμε.

Γνωρίζαμε ότι οι «Μαύροι» θα τα ανακαταλάβουν και θα επαναφέρουν το παλιό καθεστώς διοίκησης. Όμως ο λαός θα είχε ζήσει τον τρόπο της δικής μας διοίκησης και δεν θα τον ξεχνούσε.

Αρα θα αποτελούσε εν δυνάμει αντίπαλο του παλιού καθεστώτος.

Αναλογικά, σκεφτείτε,

έναν λαό

του οποίου το βιοτικό επίπεδο και όχι μόνον καταστρέφεται μέρα με την μέρα και στις μνήμες επαναφέρεται η μεταπολεμική ανέχεια και η μιζέρια τι είδους αντίπαλος θα είναι για τους «Μαύρους» που τον ματώνουν και καταδικάζουν αυτόν και τα παιδιά του σε μια ζωή χωρίς μέλλον.

Επομένως το πολιτικοοικονομικό σύστημα θα πρέπει να προλάβει την εξέλιξη αυτή.

Η μόνη λύση

για την επίτευξη αυτού του σκοπού είναι

η «αθόρυβη» απόσυρση

του Γ.Α.Π.

μέσα από εκλογές η με άλλο τρόπο, με αφορμή την δημιουργία νέου κόμματος από τα σπλάχνα των δύο μεγάλων κομμάτων ώστε για μια ακόμη φορά να εξαπατηθεί ο ελληνικός λαός και να αποφευχθεί το έστω και το ελάχιστο ενδεχόμενο

εθνικής λαικής επαναστατικης εξέγερσης.

Το σενάριο θέλει για να λειτουργήσει την αποχώρηση η την διαγραφή της Ντόρας από την Ν.Δ. και την δημιουργία νέου πολιτικού σχηματισμού.

Ταυτόχρονα η πρίν από αυτό θα πρέπει ο Ε.Βενιζέλος για κάποιο λόγο να αποχωρήσει η να διαγραφεί από το ΠΑΣΟΚ και να προχωρήσει και αυτός σε δημιουργία πολιτικού σχηματισμού.

Δεν γνωρίζουμε το «τεχνικό μέρος» της δημιουργίας των νέων πολιτικών σχηματισμών η της δημιουργίας ενιαίου πολιτικού σχηματισμού συνεργασίας Ντόρας και Βενιζέλου.

Αυτή η έλλειψη όμως δεν μας αφαιρεί το δικαίωμα της λογικής προσέγγισης του σεναρίου εξαπάτησης του ελληνικού λαού.

Γιά του λόγου το αληθές σας

παραθέτουμε μερικές απο τις τρέχουσες η και προηγούμενων ημερών ειδήσεις.

1.Το 62% των πολιτών θέλει νέο κόμμα!

2.Αποστροφή των πολιτών για τα κόμματα.

3.Προς νέο κόμμα η Ντόρα ;

4.ΕΠΙΚΙΝΔΥΝΑ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΑ ΓΕΝΝΗΤΟΥΡΙΑ ΜΕ ΣΤΟΧΟ ΤΗΝ ΚΑΤΑΔΥΝΑΣΤΕΥΣΗ ΤΟΥ ΛΑΟΥ ΚΑΙ ΤΗΝ ΑΠΟΔΙΑΡΘΡΩΣΗ ΤΗΣ ΧΩΡΑΣ.

5.Με τη «συνταγή» Βενιζέλου το θέμα της Μπακογιάννη

6.«Νέα Ελλάδα» το κόμμα της Ντόρας Μπακογιάννη?

7.Χώρος για νέο κόμμα…

8.ΜΠΑΚΟΓΙΑΝΝΗ-ΒΕΝΙΖΕΛΟΣ Αγωγές κατά του «Veto»

9.The EU Price of Greek Sovereignty, Will Revolution Follow?

ΣΕΝΑΡΙΑ !!! ΣΕΝΑΡΙΑ!!! ΣΕΝΑΡΙΑ!!!

ΟΜΩΣ ΟΠΩΣ ΔΙΑΦΑΙΝΕΤΑΙ ΣΕ ΕΝΔΕΧΟΜΕΝΗ ΠΡΟΣΦΥΓΗ ΤΗΣ ΕΛΛΑΔΑΣ

ΣΤΟ ΔΝΤ


ΤΗΝ ΚΥΒΕΡΝΗΣΗ ΤΗΣ ΧΩΡΑΣ ΘΑ ΤΗΝ ΤΟΠΟΘΕΤΕΙ

ΤΟ ΔΝΤ.

UPDATE 18 ΑΠΡΙΛΙΟΥ 2010

ΔΕΝ ΠΡΟΛΑΒΑΜΕ ΝΑ ΤΟ ΓΡΑΨΟΥΜΕ

ΚΑΙ ΙΔΟΥ ΟΙ ΕΝΔΕΙΞΕΙΣ ΤΗΣ ΟΜΟΓΕΝΟΠΟΙΗΣΗΣ

ΝΤΟΡΑΣ-ΒΕΝΙΖΕΛΟΥ-ΚΑΡΑΤΖΑΦΕΡΗ?

18/04/2010

Μπακογιάννη, Καρατζαφέρης, Βενιζέλος

μαζί για το

«παιδί του…σωλήνα» τους!

Posted in Κ.Καραμανλής, ΝΤΟΡΑ, Νέο Κόμμα, ΠΛΗΡΟΦΟΡΙΕΣ, ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΟΙ, ΤΡΑΠΕΖΙΚΟ ΚΑΡΤΕΛ, ΤΡΑΠΕΖΙΤΗΣ, Uncategorized | Με ετικέτα: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Σχόλια »

 
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